What We’re Watching in Minnesota Tonight
Today in Minnesota, voters in the 1st District are selecting the nominees for a special election to take place later this summer. The southern Minnesota seat has been vacant since Rep. Jim Hagedorn, a two-term Republican from Blue Earth, died of cancer earlier this year.
The 1st District has seen some highly competitive races recently, including Hagedorn’s two wins in 2018 (by 0.4 percentage points) and 2020 (by 3 points). But it has also trended in Republicans’ direction, and Trump carried it by 10 points in 2020, 54 to 44 percent.
It’s one reason why Republicans are heavily favored to keep the seat. Also working in the GOP’s favor is that the special election will take place concurrently with the primary for the regular election on Aug. 9, and Republicans have several competitive statewide primary races, while Democrats have none. This increases the likelihood of a turnout differential in the GOP’s favor — similar to what we’ve seen in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and potentially tonight in Georgia.
But Republicans could make life more difficult for themselves by nominating a flawed candidate. Ten Republicans are running, and the top tier consists of a wide range of contenders, including: Hagedorn’s widow, former GOP state party chair Jennifer Carnahan; state Reps. Jeremy Munson and Nels Pierson; former U.S. Department of Agriculture official Brad Finstad; and agriculture attorney Matt Benda.
While there’s a long history of widows replacing their deceased husbands in Congress, it’s not always a sure thing: just ask Susan Wright in Texas’s 6th District. Carnahan also brings some serious baggage to the race. Her tumultous tenure as chairwoman came to an abrupt end after one of her close friends and a major GOP donor was indicted on sex trafficking charges. And more recently, Hagedorn’s family sued Carnahan over unpaid medical expenses. Another leading candidate, Munson, is detested among Minnesota Republicans for starting a renegade faction in the State House. And his general consultant was recently indicted on rape charges.
It’s hard to say which of the front-runners has the upper hand headed into tonight, but the race has seen a late burst of outside spending. A Super PAC linked with Sen. Rand Paul has spent $1.4 million supporting Munson, who also received support from the House Freedom Caucus, while Defending Main Street PAC (affiliated with the more moderate Main Street Caucus) has spent over $900,000 attacking Munson and backing Finstad, who has also gotten $1.2 million from the cryptocurrency backed American Dream Federal Action.
Meanwhile, on the Democratic-Farmer-Labor side, there’s less competition. Former Hormel Foods CEO Jeffrey Ettinger is the likely nominee, but he’ll likely be an underdog in August, even though he has the capacity to self-fund. That said, a vulnerable GOP nominee could provide him with an opening.