What Went Down During The May 24 Primary Elections

Texas held its primary election a few months back, but a handful of the state’s races are still unsettled, which means they’re going to a runoff tonight. Here’s what we’ll be keeping an eye on:

• Trump’s endorsement power will be put to the test in Texas’s Republican primary runoff for the attorney general race, where embattled incumbent Ken Paxton will face off against Land Commissioner George P. Bush. Polling suggests the race is Paxton’s to lose: A May Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler poll gave the Trump-backed incumbent a 6-point edge. Despite Paxton’s many legal and personal woes, Bush has struggled to overcome the political legacy of his family, as the “Bush” name has been increasingly tied to the more moderate wing of the GOP.
• Meanwhile, the race on the Democratic side for attorney general is between Rochelle Garza, a former American Civil Liberties Union lawyer from Brownsville, and Joe Jaworski, the former mayor of Galveston. Polling so far gives Garza a slight lead, but, according to that same Dallas Morning News poll, a whopping 40 percent of voters were still undecided. And keep in mind: No Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, so either victor will face tough odds come November.
• In Texas’s 30th District, state Rep. Jasmine Crockett and Jane Hamilton, a longtime congressional staffer and campaign adviser, are vying to succeed the retiring U.S. Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson, a Democrat. The district is solidly blue and predominately Black, so we’ll be keeping an eye on whether Crockett — who barely missed the majority-vote threshold needed to win outright in March — can overcome attacks on her record lobbed by Hamilton.
• The congressional race that’s drawn the most national attention, though, will take place in the 28th District, where Rep. Henry Cuellar and progressive attorney Jessica Cisneros will go head-to-head once again. Fundraising suggests this will be another tight race, but Cuellar might be in jeopardy of losing reelection given that his anti-abortion views might not jive with voters in the district — especially as the fate of Roe v. Wade hangs in limbo. There’s a primary runoff on the Republican side, too, between Cassy Garcia, a former staffer for Sen. Ted Cruz, who endorsed her, and Sandra Whitten, the 2020 GOP nominee for the seat. According to some reports, Garcia, who has the backing of the GOP congressional establishment, is considered the favorite heading into tonight.
• Lastly, we’ll be monitoring the 15th District, which Republicans see as flippable this fall since the decennial reapportionment process made the seat more GOP-friendly. The two Democrats duking it out for a chance to challenge Monica De La Cruz, a Trump-endorsed Republican, are Democrats Ruben Ramirez, an Army veteran, and Michelle Vallejo, an activist and small-business owner. In March, Ramirez led the field with 28 percent of the vote, while Vallejo garnered 20 percent.

For more details on all of these races (and more!), check out FiveThirtyEight’s primary preview from Nathaniel and me.