What Went Down During The May 24 Primary Elections

All right readers, we’re calling it a night. There are some key races still outstanding, which we’ll write about in greater detail below, but as we prepare to shutter the live blog there are a few key takeaways from the evening as well.

The biggest takeaway might be that even though tonight was not a good one for Trump’s endorsement track record, especially in Georgia, don’t write off his influence in the party just yet. Yes, Kemp handily won renomination in Georgia’s GOP gubernatorial primary, but as Alex wrote on the live blog earlier, even if Trump’s preferred candidates don’t win, it’s not “necessarily good news for the anti-Trump wing of the GOP. That’s because, at least in several of Georgia’s races, the non-Trump backed incumbent is still embracing Trumpian politics!”

Indeed, that’s a refrain you can expect to hear throughout the primary season. Here’s a rundown of the important races we were tracking without an official winner. That said, we can see where most of them are headed:

• Perhaps the most important uncalled race is the Republican primary for Georgia secretary of state. Pro-democracy incumbent Brad Raffensperger has done better than expected, with 51 percent of the vote vs. 34 percent for Trump’s endorsee, Rep. Jody Hice with 77 percent of the vote reported. It’s uncertain whether Raffensperger will be forced into a runoff, though, as he’s just barely above the 50 percent threshold. [Editor’s Note: Early Wednesday, ABC News projected that Raffensperger will win his election, and with 95 percent of the total vote expected, he does seem to have narrowly avoided a runoff against Hice, having earned 52 percent of the vote to Hice’s 33 percent.]
• And in the race for lieutenant governor there, state Sen. Butch Jones has just over 50 percent with 86 percent of the expected vote in, ahead of state Sen. Butch Miller. Jones, endorsed by Trump, might be able to just squeak out a victory and avoid a runoff.
• Meanwhile, three Republican primaries in the House appear headed for runoffs in Georgia, although none have been projected yet by ABC News. In the 6th District, physician Rich McCormick is at about 45 percent, so if he doesn’t reach 50 percent, he’ll face Trump-endorsed former state ethics commission chair Jake Evans in a June 21 runoff. In the 10th District, a runoff is certain, probably between businessman Mike Collins and Trump-endorsed former state Rep. Vernon Jones. And in the 2nd District, which could be competitive in the fall, former Army officer Jeremy Hunt and Air National Guard officer Chris West look likely to meet in a second round.
• The Republican primary in Alabama for senator is also still up in the air. Former Business Council of Alabama President Katie Britt has a solid lead with 44 percent, but that’s not enough to avoid a runoff. Rep. Mo Brooks leads former Army helicopter pilot Mike Durant for second place, 29 percent to 24 percent.
• In the GOP primary for governor in Alabama, incumbent Kay Ivey is hovering just above the 50 percent threshold she needs to avoid a runoff against either former Ambassador to Slovenia Lindy Blanchard (in second with 19 percent) or businessman Tim James (the son of former Gov. Fob James, in third with 16 percent). [Editor’s Note: ABC News projected that Ivey will win her election. As of 8:40 a.m. ET, Wednesday, she had 54 percent of the vote, well above her other challengers with 94 percent of the expected vote in.]
• In Texas, three races are still outstanding: the Democratic primary runoffs in the 15th District and 28th District and the Democratic primary runoff for attorney general. In the 15th District, lawyer and Army veteran Ruben Ramirez and activist and small business owner Michelle Vallejo are essentially tied at 50 percent. We might not have a winner in the other border-area congressional seat — the 28th District — tonight either, as Rep. Henry Cuellar and progressive immigration attorney Jessica Cisneros are similarly neck-and-neck. According to ABC News’s most recent vote projections, the incumbent is leading by roughly 1,130 votes, with about 82 percent of the expected vote in. The biggest wild card here will be Election Day votes cast in Duval and Zapata counties — where Cuellar is expected to have a strong showing. [Editor’s Note: The race has since narrowed, and less than 1,000 votes separate Cuellar and Cisneros.] The Democratic primary race for attorney general, meanwhile, is much less of a nail-biter. According to The New York Times, Rochelle Garza, a former American Civil Liberties Union lawyer from Brownsville, leads Joe Jaworski, the former mayor of Galveston, 62 percent to 38 percent, with roughly 60 percent of the vote reported. The winner of this race will face Republican incumbent Ken Paxton this fall, but it’ll be an uphill climb. Despite Paxton’s many legal and personal woes, he handily defeated his GOP challenger, Land Commissioner George P. Bush, 68 percent to 32 percent. And remember: No Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas since 1994.
• In the GOP primary for Alabama’s 5th District, Madison County Commissioner Dale Strong has, erm, a strong lead with 47 percent, but as of now he’d be forced into a runoff with former Assistant Secretary of the Army Casey Wardynski, who sits at 22 percent.
• In the Republican primary for Alabama secretary of state, state Auditor Jim Zeigler (43 percent) and state Rep. Wes Allen (39 percent) seem like they’re headed for a runoff. Notably, both have questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 election.
• Finally, in Minnesota’s 1st District, which is holding a special election for the remainder of the late Rep. Jim Hagedorn’s term, the Republican primary is a close contest between former U.S. Department of Agriculture official Brad Finstad and state Rep. Jeremy Munson. With a little under half of the vote counted, Munson leads Finstad by 6 points, 38-32 percent. Either one would be favored in a general election, but Munson might be a riskier option given that he’s fairly unpopular among Minnesota Republican party leaders for his antics in the state legislature, and his campaign’s general consultant was recently arrested on rape charges.

In Republican primaries tonight, the non-incumbent women who received support from either Maggie’s List, VIEW PAC, or Winning for Women, are winning a little more than half of their races. Cassy Garcia, who received support from these groups when she advanced to the runoff, should win in Texas’s 28th District. And Katie Britt is leading the Alabama Senate race, while Sarah Huckabee Sanders won the Arkansas governor’s race. Jennifer Strahan (who was only endorsed by VIEW PAC) lost in Georgia’s 14th District to incumbent Marjorie Taylor Greene, and Suzi Voyles (who was only endorsed by Maggie’s List) is trailing in Georgia’s 6th District. Voyles was up against a Trump endorsed candidate, Jake Evans. It remains to be seen if the GOP will match the (small) gains women made in 2020, but we will be watching.

Like last week’s big state run, Trump’s endorsement record looks pretty mixed tonight. Of course, there are races where his chosen candidate won or is leading by nearly insurmountable margins (like the lieutenant governor and Senate races in Georgia tonight). But his chosen challengers to incumbent candidates fell short. His picks in open primaries (Jake Evans and Vernon Jones) are trailing, but the leading candidate is still under 50 percent, meaning they’ll get another shot.

Trump endorsed two of his preferred candidates — Herschel Walker for Senate in Georgia, and Sarah Huckabee Sanders for governor in Arkansas — all the way back in 2021. That could’ve contributed to their front-runner status during their campaigns and their easy victories tonight. That might suggest Trump’s endorsement power is waning with actual voters.