What Went Down During The May 24 Primary Elections

As Galen mentioned, Texas’s 28th District will be competitive in November. That said, Republicans didn’t seem to invest much in their own primary. But the competitiveness of the district might help explain why Cisneros’s progressive supporters, like Sen. Sanders and Sen. Warren, emphasized that she would be on the side of working people. They understand Cuellar’s appeal there and are hoping Cisneros will have broad appeal.

Well, even though abortion seemingly opened an avenue of attack for Cisneros against Cuellar, who is anti-abortion rights, it hard to say yet if it mattered much. Currently, Cisneros leads by about 1 point, 50.6 percent to 49.4 percent, but two counties Cuellar carried easily haven’t reported anything yet, according to ABC News. Still, Cisneros could benefit from the outstanding votes left to be reported in Bexar County (San Antonio), so this race is very much up in the air. But that’s sort of what we expected after Cuellar led 49 percent to 47 percent in the primary. I guess it’ll be easy to say that abortion mattered if Cisneros wins, but it will be harder to parse whether that’s true.

Sarah, I think all the focus on the Cuellar/Cisneros, moderate/progressive feud has distracted from how competitive this race could be this fall. Whoever pulls this out (and maybe even more so if it’s Cisneros) will be facing strong headwinds in the Rio Grande Valley. The movement towards Trump from 2016 to 2020 in the region was basically unmatched anywhere else in the country. The counties along the U.S.-Mexico border saw an average shift of 16 points towards the president.