FiveThirtyEight
Alex Samuels

Was Bush really that viable, Galen?

Galen Druke

Nate, I take what you’re saying about pro-democracy candidates, but I don’t know if that’s the trend line tonight. It might also be that it’s really hard to beat incumbents. Paxton is a big time 2020 election denier and he had a very viable challenger in Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush. That race isn’t remotely close, though.

Nate Silver

I want to digest things a bit more, but if the role of the press is to “root for democracy” (I could write a long critique about what is and isn’t implied by that phrase) then I think it’s important to note that a lot of the more anti-democratic candidates didn’t perform well tonight, and that’s probably more important than the horse-race implications. As for Trump, I think there’s an argument to be made that his influence is waning, but I think a candidate like DeSantis is more likely to be the beneficiary of that than one like Pence.


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