FiveThirtyEight
Galen Druke

I don’t think this has anything to do with Pence. Sure, he endorsed Kemp, but that’s not why Kemp won. And as far as Pence’s shot at 2024 is concerned, I wouldn’t put him ahead of Trump or DeSantis until I see something in the actual data suggesting otherwise. But I agree that it’s a bad night for Trump insofar as it makes him look silly. Although, as has been said, this doesn’t necessarily say much about whether Republicans will vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary.

To sort of change of the roles here, I don’t think that Obama endorsing Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in a primary against Gov. Kathy Hochul would mean that Ocasio-Cortez would be the next governor of New York, but I’m pretty damn sure, if it were constitutional, that Obama could win a 2024 Democratic Primary.

Sarah Frostenson

What do you all think … bad night for Trump, good night for Pence? I know you, Nate, once ranked Pence pretty highly in a FiveThirtyEight presidential draft. Or at the very least, didn’t think it was a bad pick.

Sarah Frostenson

That’s a really good point, Jacob. This quote from Kemp during a virtual news conference Monday really stood out to me, too. Kemp said, “I had a great relationship with President Trump. I’ve never said anything bad about him. I don’t plan on doing that. I’m not mad at him. I think he’s just mad at me. And that’s something that I can’t control.”

Hardly sounds like he’s distancing himself from Trump, even if Trump had a vendetta against him.


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