What Went Down During The May 24 Primary Elections

One interesting thing about the Democratic primary in Minnesota’s 1st District is that the top two candidates (so far) are both guys who describe themselves as moderates forced out of the Republican party by extremism.

Ettinger, currently leading this race with 51.5 percent of the vote and 2 percent reporting, was once a Mitt Romney supporter. He’s now the co-chair of Democratic Governor Tim Walz’s Economic Expansion Council and has described the Republican party as “purging itself” of moderates. Richard Painter, meanwhile, with 17.5 percent of the vote, was once part of the Bush White House legal team, but has run unsuccessfully for office as a Democrat in the state once already. Both seem to have really been pushed over the edge by Trumpism, although Painter describes grievances with the GOP stretching back to the 1990s.

Geoff, I agree on Kelly, and I would add that the GOP primary in Arizona is late and still very unsettled, while Republicans have known their likely nominee in Georgia for months. But I wouldn’t count Warnock out at all. He’s got a ton of money, he’s a skilled campaigner, and Walker is a flawed opponent. Both races are going to be very close.

Among the Democratic senators on the ballot this year, the two biggest fundraisers are Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly and Warnock, and both face tough reelection fights in red-leaning swing states. My question is, who has a better shot at winning reelection — Kelly or Warnock? I’ll go ahead and say Kelly because Arizona has a swingier electorate — it’s just not as racially polarized in its voting patterns as Georgia is. And in a GOP-leaning year, I think Kelly could have more swing voters to win over than Warnock.