FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

To Leah Askarinam’s point a few posts ago, that the GOP having turnout problems when Trump isn’t on the ballot could bode poorly for Republicans in 2024 (assuming Trump isn’t their presidential nominee again). Without him on the ticket, maybe they will struggle to turn out some of those Trump superfans who are otherwise unlikely to vote, which could cost the party its edge in the Electoral College (which currently would allow Republicans to win the presidency even if Democrats win the popular vote by as many as 4 points).


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