The Likely 2024 GOP Field Has Split On The Election Certification Issue
I should emphasize that I don’t actually know who is running for president in 2024. But there are figures in the GOP that many observers think are keeping the door open to run and I think it’s worth looking at this vote in that context.
Two of the most prominent figures in Congress who backed Trump’s bid to fight the certification, Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Josh Hawley of Missouri, are both expected to explore 2024 presidential bids.
But other Republicans who are likely to flirt with 2024 bids did not join this effort. Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska was not unsurprising, because he has been critical of Trump in the past. Sen Mike Lee of Utah breaking with Trump was also not that surprising. Lee has not been as vocal as people like Sasse in terms of taking on the president on these kinds of questions around democratic values. At the same time, he has a fairly low Trump score. (He voted against Trump’s position more than all but six senators in 2019-2020, usually opposing government spending bills he feels are too large and trying to rein in executive power on foreign policy.). Sens Marco Rubio of Florida and Tim Scott of South Carolina I suspect were trying to figure out where the wind was blowing — and pro-Trump demonstrators effectively invading the Capitol likely moved them to break with Trump on this issue.
Perhaps the most surprising person to break with Trump was Sen. Tom Cotton, who aligned with the outgoing president on basically every major issue over the last four years, most notably on immigration policy.
Even before this certification debate, Lee and Sasse were never going to win the GOP nomination if it turned into a contest over who is the most Trump-like figure and most aligned with the president. But Cotton either seems to be betting this vote won’t matter much to his presidential prospects in terms of courting Trump-aligned GOP voters or just decided he will not take an overtly anti-democratic step to align himself with the president’s base. We’ll find out in a few years if this issue reverberates on the campaign trail.
Rep. Liz Cheney, who is the No. 3 Republican in the party’s leadership in the House, is expected to be the top Republican in that chamber to vote for certification. She is also a potential 2024 candidate. This is also not surprising. Over the last year, Cheney has become a vocal critic of Trump, both in terms of his breaking with democratic values and on foreign policy issues, where Cheney views Trump as insufficiently hawkish.