FiveThirtyEight
Sarah Frostenson

That’s It For Tonight

It is hard to find words to describe the events of today, but after a violent mob of Trump supporters stormed the Capitol earlier today, breaking up Congress’s efforts to certify the election results, Congress reconvened, at 8 p.m. ET, to once again pick up the debate.

Historically, this vote has been a largely ceremonial one, but in the days leading up to this year’s certification, it became the latest litmus test for politicians’ loyalty to Trump and the newest effort to overturn what the president has repeatedly and baselessly claimed is a rigged election.

Today, we saw the consequences of those actions — violence being incited at the Capitol. The events, though, seem to have some effect on how many GOP senators and representatives have chosen to continue to object to the election results. This was particularly notable in the Senate. Reportedly, 14 GOP senators had planned to object to the results in Arizona, but only six did so in the end. The number of Republican who objected to the results was higher in the House (121).

At this point, both the House and Senate have held their debates over results in Arizona and the objection has failed. It is unclear how many other states’ results will be questioned, as Congress hears objections in alphabetical order. But Hawley has already objected to Pennsylvania’s results, and the House will open the floor to debate.

This could take a while, so we’re shutting down for now as they debate, but the important thing to remember here is that this effort is futile: Congress does not have the votes to overturn the election or any legitimate reason to do so, but this episode remains an unsettling one for our democracy, as it raises the spectre of what might have happened if circumstances were slightly different — which is something Congress and the American public will to have to grapple with in the wake of Trump’s presidency.

Sarah Frostenson

Initially, an objection to Georgia’s results was expected, but as Loeffler changed her decision earlier today in light of the violence at the Capitol, there was no objection. We are expecting, however, for Hawley to object to the results in Pennsylvania.

Nate Silver

It’s a terrible day and I think it’s fortunate that it didn’t end up being worse, with one or more members of Congress being injured or killed. Beyond that, it’s hard to say much. It certainly did weaken the anti-certification movement in the short run, though far more so in the Senate than the House. And it probably weakens Trumpism in the long run too, to the extent that it will now be even harder to deny the movement’s association with violence — although the Georgia runoff losses may wind up being the bigger blow to how much future Republicans want to emulate Trump’s tactics. Biden’s victory will presumably be certified at some point early in the morning. But the crisis isn’t over, as it isn’t entirely clear who’s really in command of the government or what Trump might try next.


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