FiveThirtyEight
Nate Silver

Another key difference is that House GOP leadership is supporting the aye vote.

Sarah Frostenson

You’re right, Nate. And I think what Perry just wrote is what I was trying to get at. At certain points today it seemed like impeachment might be back on the table, or the 25th Amendment might be invoked, but this House vote now underscores for me, anyway, that if there was an impeachment vote — a big if — it would more likely than not fall along familiar partisan lines. I thought might have changed after today’s events. I was wrong.

Nate Silver

I don’t know what the baseline is, Sarah. But 126 Republicans in the House had signed a letter in support of an amicus brief asking the Supreme Court to overturn the election. So this perhaps isn’t too surprising.


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