FiveThirtyEight
Sarah Frostenson

You’re right, Nate. And I think what Perry just wrote is what I was trying to get at. At certain points today it seemed like impeachment might be back on the table, or the 25th Amendment might be invoked, but this House vote now underscores for me, anyway, that if there was an impeachment vote — a big if — it would more likely than not fall along familiar partisan lines. I thought might have changed after today’s events. I was wrong.

Nate Silver

I don’t know what the baseline is, Sarah. But 126 Republicans in the House had signed a letter in support of an amicus brief asking the Supreme Court to overturn the election. So this perhaps isn’t too surprising.

Perry Bacon Jr.

Don’t Expect Trump To Be Removed From Office Two Weeks Early 

There’s been lots of online chatter about: 1) Will Congress, particularly Democrats in the House, push for Trump’s impeachment and removal from office? and 2) Will the Cabinet invoke the 25th Amendment and remove Trump from power?

I don’t know the answer to these questions. But listening to Pelosi’s and Schumer’s speeches tonight, it sure sounds like they would rather just wait until Biden’s inauguration on Jan. 20. Pence and McConnell didn’t even directly criticize Trump by name, so it’s hard to see them trying to push Trump out.


What has happened today is that it now feels like many Republicans in Congress don’t feel the need to defend Trump over these next two weeks, however, and that is notable.


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