FiveThirtyEight
Perry Bacon Jr.

Tonight’s big important story, as several of you have alluded to, is that the anti-certification bloc in the Senate was reduced by about half by today’s events. And it looks like we will have objections to just two states (Arizona and Pennsylvania) instead of at least three (an objection to Georgia had also been anticipated).

Perry Bacon Jr.

So what unifies these six members (Cruz, Hawley, Hyde-Smith, Kennedy, Marshall, Tuberville)? The most important thing is that they are all fairly new members. I think Cruz is most tenured among them, and he was first elected in 2012. Kennedy was class of 2016, Hyde-Smith and Hawley in the class of 2018, and Marshall and Tuberville were elected in 2020. Tuberville won in part because Trump endorsed him over Jeff Sessions in the primary.

Sarah Frostenson

At this point, we are now waiting for the House to close its debate and vote before Congress will reconvene in a joint session. Hawley, for one, has said that he will also object to Pennsylvania’s vote, but that he will cede his speaking time.


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