FiveThirtyEight
Nate Silver

Yeah, I don’t know, Sarah. I suppose I’ll want to see the final count of objections. Another relevant question, given some of the reporting tonight, is whether roughly a third of Senate Republicans would vote to remove Trump under the 25th Amendment, which, when combined with what would probably be nearly-unanimous support from Democrats for removal, would be enough to get the Senate to the two-thirds required.

Micah Cohen

I’m still pretty torn on this, Sarah. It feels like two weeks from now we could be back to near-total rhetorical fealty to Trump — or that the break will be big and lasting. Right now, it feels like the momentum is behind the break being lasting. But it’s felt that way at a few moments over the last four years. Of course, now we’re at a point where Trump will be out of office in two weeks either way.

Sarah Frostenson

I want to return to something Micah brought up earlier — this idea that if the GOP turns on Trump, it’ll happen all at once. Hawley most certainly has not backed down from his objection, whereas others — such as Loeffler, Lankford and Blackburn — have.

It’s notable that Hawley didn’t back down, and maybe Cruz and Johnson won’t either. But originally as many as 14 GOP senators were going to object, that number looks like it will be a lot smaller now. Is it possible that even if not every GOP member backs down, we’re still seeing a break with Trump and maybe Trumpism? Or is it still too soon to tell?


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