FiveThirtyEight
Micah Cohen

So, after four years of “will Republican elected officials break with Trump?” can we finally say they’ve broken? Or at least a meaningful portion of them? I agree the Pence decision FEELS like a moment.

Geoffrey Skelley

So add Pence, in a way, to the list of 2024 Republican presidential contenders who aren’t opposing the certification vote. Of course, he’s also in a unique constitutional position as the president of the Senate, charged with opening the submitted electoral votes from each state.

Micah Cohen

Well, Chad, Nixon’s base basically became the Reagan revolution — a reminder that political movements usually outlast their leaders. Trumpism is maybe uniquely tied to Trump personally, but I’d bet his base continues to wield plenty of power in the years ahead.


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