FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

Pence just released a letter in which he says he will not stop Biden’s electoral votes from being counted. This feels like a big moment — after four years of loyalty, Pence has finally made a public break with Trump.

Chadwick Matlin

Nathaniel shared a tweet earlier about the rare nature of the losses that the GOP has suffered while Trump was on the ballot, comparing Trump’s failures to Hoover’s. That comparison aside, it has reminded me of a nagging thought I’ve had throughout the Trump presidency: Will historians forget how much of the country believed in Trump’s vision just because a majority (very slim in some races!) voted him and other GOP politicians out? We don’t hear much about what happened to Hoover’s base these days, for example. Or even Nixon’s.

Sarah Frostenson

As many of my colleagues pointed out, Trump’s speech just now … was surreal. Trump repeatedly said that he had either won the election (he didn’t) or that he would never concede (he hasn’t).

But it made me think of this analysis from the AP published earlier in November. One thing they found in their reporting is that, “[S]ome Trump allies acknowledge privately that using the courts to actually reverse Biden’s victory isn’t the point of their efforts. … Rather than actually overturn the election results, Trump allies say the goal is to help keep the president’s most loyal supporters engaged and energized for whatever he might pursue after he leaves office — even if that means leaving them ill-informed about the reality of what has unfolded in the election.”

This, if true, is disheartening for our democracy, because there are signs it is working. Distrust in the electoral process — especially among Republicans — is now at an all-time high.

Of course, the fact that this is all anonymously sourced should give one pause, but that unfortunately is the reality of this administration — leaks with few willing to go on the record. And it’s hard to have watched that press conference and ascribe any real strategy in it, in fact, it might be dangerous to give that level of credence to Trump’s claims, but at any rate, this does set a true troubling precedent in our democracy that we can’t undersell.


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