What Happened This Week In Washington — And Georgia

Nate Silver

Both Republicans currently lead their Democratic opponents.

But most analysts consider Democrats the favorites.

This is because there are many heavily Democratic counties with a lot of vote left:
DeKalb (35% reporting)
Cobb (37%)
Gwinnett (36%)
Chatham (41%)
Muscogee (48%)
— Ryan Matsumoto (@ryanmatsumoto1) January 6, 2021

Nate Silver

9:40 pm

This is why the results as currently reported are painting an incomplete picture. Democrats are likely to gain a lot once these DeKalb ballots are reported, likely enough to net around 100k votes, or perhaps a bit more.

The biggest dump of remaining Democratic vote is the ~170k DeKalb County in-person early vote, which we expect to break for Ossoff by an 85-15 margin
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) January 6, 2021

Geoffrey Skelley

9:39 pm

Georgia has 159 counties, the second-most behind Texas, and more than half of them — 98 — have reported at least 95 percent of their expected vote. But less than 40 percent is in from DeKalb County (which is partly in Atlanta) and Forsyth County (a smaller but still sizable and very Republican part of the Atlanta metro are). Savannah (Chatham County) and Augusta (Columbia County) also are at 40 percent or less, while Clarke County (home to Athens and the University of Georgia) is only at 42 percent in. On the whole, there’s probably more vote left out in Democratic-leaning areas, which helps explain why projections such as those at The New York Times give a slight edge to the two Democratic candidates.

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