What Happened This Week In Washington — And Georgia

Good point from Other Nate here. Given that we had a very similar election two months ago, that probably reduces the uncertainty about how the rest of the vote will go. That might explain why betting markets (and Twitter) are more confident about Democrats’ chances than the needle, which isn’t accounting for how having had an election in November makes the forecasting a bit easier tonight.

Counties where over 99 percent of the expected vote is in is growing, and while the initial batch of almost-fully-reporting counties was very good for Democrats, it looks a bit more mixed now: Several counties, such as Glynn, Greene and Franklin, have both Perdue and Loeffler beating Trump’s November performance. But we should note that as yet, all of these counties are small — the margin in bigger counties will, of course, have a much larger impact.

How counties are voting in the regular Senate runoff

The current margins, by county, for the Georgia Senate race between Sen. David Perdue (R) and Jon Ossoff (D) and how that margin compares to the county’s final Nov. presidential margin

county	County size	Cand. Margin	Pres. Margin	Diff
Glynn	◼️◻️◻️	R+25.4	R+23.2	R+2.2
Oconee	◼️◻️◻️	R+37.8	R+33.5	R+4.3
Dawson	◼️◻️◻️	R+69.0	R+67.9	R+1.2
Monroe	◼️◻️◻️	R+42.9	R+42.8	R+0.1
Union	◼️◻️◻️	R+63.8	R+63.3	R+0.4
Hart	◼️◻️◻️	R+48.8	R+49.6	D+0.7
Greene	◼️◻️◻️	R+30.3	R+26.5	R+3.8
Franklin	◼️◻️◻️	R+70.8	R+69.4	R+1.4
Washington	◼️◻️◻️	D+2.5	D+0.8	D+1.7
Mitchell	◼️◻️◻️	R+9.7	R+10.5	D+0.8
Oglethorpe	◼️◻️◻️	R+38.1	R+38.8	D+0.7
Crisp	◼️◻️◻️	R+24.8	R+24.9	D+0.1
Brantley	◼️◻️◻️	R+81.4	R+81.2	R+0.2
Brooks	◼️◻️◻️	R+21.0	R+20.7	R+0.3
Screven	◼️◻️◻️	R+18.6	R+18.9	D+0.3
Ben Hill	◼️◻️◻️	R+23.6	R+26.2	D+2.6
Long	◼️◻️◻️	R+22.6	R+26.4	D+3.8
Heard	◼️◻️◻️	R+66.6	R+68.5	D+1.9
Early	◼️◻️◻️	R+4.1	R+5.0	D+0.9
Wilkes	◼️◻️◻️	R+14.0	R+13.2	R+0.8
Bacon	◼️◻️◻️	R+73.1	R+72.7	R+0.4
Candler	◼️◻️◻️	R+42.1	R+42.1	R+0.0
Terrell	◼️◻️◻️	D+9.4	D+8.4	D+1.0
Hancock	◼️◻️◻️	D+43.6	D+43.9	R+0.2
Johnson	◼️◻️◻️	R+41.6	R+39.7	R+1.9
Turner	◼️◻️◻️	R+23.5	R+24.8	D+1.2
Lanier	◼️◻️◻️	R+40.3	R+41.7	D+1.3
Randolph	◼️◻️◻️	D+12.9	D+9.1	D+3.8
Chattahoochee	◼️◻️◻️	R+8.2	R+13.5	D+5.3
Clay	◼️◻️◻️	D+11.2	D+10.7	D+0.5

How counties are voting in the special Senate runoff

The current margins, by county, for the Georgia Senate race between Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) and Raphael Warnock (D) and how that margin compares to the county’s final Nov. presidential margin

county	County size	Cand. Margin	Pres. Margin	Diff
Glynn	◼️◻️◻️	R+25.3	R+23.2	R+2.1
Oconee	◼️◻️◻️	R+36.3	R+33.5	R+2.8
Dawson	◼️◻️◻️	R+68.4	R+67.9	R+0.5
Monroe	◼️◻️◻️	R+42.5	R+42.8	D+0.3
Union	◼️◻️◻️	R+63.6	R+63.3	R+0.3
Hart	◼️◻️◻️	R+49.2	R+49.6	D+0.4
Greene	◼️◻️◻️	R+29.2	R+26.5	R+2.7
Franklin	◼️◻️◻️	R+70.8	R+69.4	R+1.4
Washington	◼️◻️◻️	D+3.0	D+0.8	D+2.2
Mitchell	◼️◻️◻️	R+9.3	R+10.5	D+1.2
Oglethorpe	◼️◻️◻️	R+37.4	R+38.8	D+1.4
Crisp	◼️◻️◻️	R+24.3	R+24.9	D+0.7
Brantley	◼️◻️◻️	R+81.5	R+81.2	R+0.2
Brooks	◼️◻️◻️	R+21.1	R+20.7	R+0.4
Screven	◼️◻️◻️	R+18.1	R+18.9	D+0.9
Ben Hill	◼️◻️◻️	R+23.3	R+26.2	D+2.8
Long	◼️◻️◻️	R+22.3	R+26.4	D+4.1
Heard	◼️◻️◻️	R+65.8	R+68.5	D+2.7
Early	◼️◻️◻️	R+4.5	R+5.0	D+0.5
Wilkes	◼️◻️◻️	R+13.8	R+13.2	R+0.6
Bacon	◼️◻️◻️	R+73.0	R+72.7	R+0.3
Candler	◼️◻️◻️	R+42.3	R+42.1	R+0.2
Terrell	◼️◻️◻️	D+9.7	D+8.4	D+1.2
Hancock	◼️◻️◻️	D+43.8	D+43.9	R+0.1
Johnson	◼️◻️◻️	R+41.4	R+39.7	R+1.7
Turner	◼️◻️◻️	R+23.3	R+24.8	D+1.5
Lanier	◼️◻️◻️	R+40.1	R+41.7	D+1.6
Randolph	◼️◻️◻️	D+13.1	D+9.1	D+4.0
Chattahoochee	◼️◻️◻️	R+8.9	R+13.5	D+4.6
Clay	◼️◻️◻️	D+11.2	D+10.7	D+0.4

By this logic, look for Ossoff to be elected president in 2064.

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/1346638113448349702