FiveThirtyEight
Nate Silver

It’s hard to know whether the narrative on Twitter and other places has gotten overexuberant for the Democrats. It really does seem to be pretty hard to find favorable data points for the GOP so far, but with this patchwork of Election Day votes, early votes and so on, coming in from very different parts of the state, it can also be easy to cherry-pick evidence. And while Democrats are beating their marks, they they’re mostly doing so by narrow margins.

Nathaniel Rakich

Rockdale County, a Democratic stronghold southeast of Atlanta, has now counted 98 percent of its expected vote. Warnock and Ossoff both lead there by 45 points after Biden won it by 41 points in November. If that pattern holds in other metro Atlanta counties, that would be very good for Democrats.

Geoffrey Skelley

So more than half the expected vote has been reported statewide now, and in fact 69 counties have reported at least 95 percent of their expected vote. In those counties, Trump won by 30.4 points, but so far, Perdue is up 30.3 points in them and Loeffler is up 29.9 points in them. And these are obviously predominantly conservative counties. I’d say this is a slightly bullish sign for Ossoff and Warnock. However, given that a sizable Election Day vote was expected to be good for the GOP — and that looks to be happening — these contests are still very much up for grabs.


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