FiveThirtyEight
Geoffrey Skelley

So more than half the expected vote has been reported statewide now, and in fact 69 counties have reported at least 95 percent of their expected vote. In those counties, Trump won by 30.4 points, but so far, Perdue is up 30.3 points in them and Loeffler is up 29.9 points in them. And these are obviously predominantly conservative counties. I’d say this is a slightly bullish sign for Ossoff and Warnock. However, given that a sizable Election Day vote was expected to be good for the GOP — and that looks to be happening — these contests are still very much up for grabs.

Sarah Frostenson

Wow. That really is wild, Nathaniel.

Nathaniel Rakich

Nate Cohn of The New York Times/The Upshot estimates that total turnout will eventually hit 4.415 millionat least. It’s hard to overstate what a huge number that is for a runoff election. It would be more than double the previous record for highest turnout in a runoff, 2.1 million in 2008. Heck, it would be more than the 4.1 million people who voted in Georgia in the 2016 general election.


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