What Happened This Week In Washington — And Georgia

The rural, largely Black Democratic counties are often some of the harder ones to project, so as Dave said, this looks like good news for Ossoff and Warnock.

Oconee County, a well-educated county just outside Athens, was one of the places with the most split-ticket voters in November: specifically, Biden-Perdue voters. Trump won it by 34 points in November, but Perdue won it by 38 points. Tonight, Loeffler is leading there by 36 points and Perdue by 37 points.

Yeah, Nathaniel, if Republicans do lose these races, the narrative turns into a choose your own adventure for Republicans. They can either say, “Hey, we need a Trump type to turn out low-propensity non-college-educated white voters, otherwise we lose.” Or they could say, “Hey, all that nutty authoritarian stuff didn’t work with suburbanites and we need to pivot.” I imagine we will see both of those options on offer from GOP candidates in 2022 and 2024. If Republicans win tonight, I imagine there will still be a similar debate, but there will be more momentum behind the status quo.