What Happened This Week In Washington — And Georgia

To Leah Askarinam’s point a few posts ago, that the GOP having turnout problems when Trump isn’t on the ballot could bode poorly for Republicans in 2024 (assuming Trump isn’t their presidential nominee again). Without him on the ticket, maybe they will struggle to turn out some of those Trump superfans who are otherwise unlikely to vote, which could cost the party its edge in the Electoral College (which currently would allow Republicans to win the presidency even if Democrats win the popular vote by as many as 4 points).

Keep in mind that Perdue beat Ossoff in November, so Ossoff needs a swing toward him. But a 4-point swing would be more than enough, especially if turnout is also favorable for Democrats.

Taking a step back, Ossoff and Warnock both lead 55 percent to 45 percent with 43 percent of the expected vote counted. Given that local voting patterns still point to a very close race, that means that there probably isn’t a “red mirage” in the early results after all. As Laura pointed out earlier, there was simply no guarantee that vote-reporting patterns would be the same in January as they were in November. As it turned out, many of the big, blue, Atlanta-area counties dropped their results relatively early.