FiveThirtyEight
Micah Cohen

Sarah, I honestly don’t think the results in Georgia will factor into Trump’s rhetoric much — at least not in any logical way. If the Republicans win, Trump might say something like, “See, this proves they stole the election when I was on the ballot.” In other words, I wouldn’t expect truth or consistency.

Sarah Frostenson

Geoffrey pointed out that Perdue and Loeffler are outperforming Trump in Georgia’s Republican-leaning counties so far. If that continues and they, say, win, what does that do to Trump’s messaging that the election in Georgia was fraudulent? And what happens if they don’t win, but they still outperform Trump?

Nathaniel Rakich

To Leah Askarinam’s point a few posts ago, that the GOP having turnout problems when Trump isn’t on the ballot could bode poorly for Republicans in 2024 (assuming Trump isn’t their presidential nominee again). Without him on the ticket, maybe they will struggle to turn out some of those Trump superfans who are otherwise unlikely to vote, which could cost the party its edge in the Electoral College (which currently would allow Republicans to win the presidency even if Democrats win the popular vote by as many as 4 points).


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