FiveThirtyEight
Geoffrey Skelley

So far, eight counties have reported 95 percent or more of their expected vote, and they split basically 50-50 in terms of how the parties are performing in relation to the razor-thin presidential margin. And one, Pulaski County in south central Georgia, actually is split, with Perdue and Warnock slightly outperforming the November presidential results.

Micah Cohen

Meanwhile, The New York Times just reported this:

“Vice President Mike Pence told President Trump on Tuesday that he did not believe he had the power to block congressional certification of Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s victory in the presidential election despite Mr. Trump’s baseless insistence that he did, people briefed on the conversation said.”

Nate Silver

Micah, I guess I’d say that’s a good reflection of how we’ll interpret the data if Republicans win. But there are other interpretations, like that their turnout is in fact depressed. And if blue counties are having big Election Day turnout, too, like we’re seeing in DeKalb County, Republicans might get the Election Day turnout they want but not win by the margins they want.


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