FiveThirtyEight
Micah Cohen

Meanwhile, The New York Times just reported this:

“Vice President Mike Pence told President Trump on Tuesday that he did not believe he had the power to block congressional certification of Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s victory in the presidential election despite Mr. Trump’s baseless insistence that he did, people briefed on the conversation said.”

Nate Silver

Micah, I guess I’d say that’s a good reflection of how we’ll interpret the data if Republicans win. But there are other interpretations, like that their turnout is in fact depressed. And if blue counties are having big Election Day turnout, too, like we’re seeing in DeKalb County, Republicans might get the Election Day turnout they want but not win by the margins they want.

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

That’s an interesting theory, Micah — it doesn’t seem implausible to me that Republicans would be even more leery of voting by mail now than in November. On the other hand, Trump hasn’t exactly limited his false critiques of the November election to voting by mail, and he also was heavily criticizing mail voting in the lead-up to the November election, so I wonder if there’s a limit to the impact of that specific message.


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