What Happened This Week In Washington — And Georgia

This isn’t entirely related to your question about Election Day voting, Micah, but I found it rather mind-boggling, so here we go. This was from ABC News as of 6:00 p.m. ET tonight, but the total early vote included 123,079 people who did not participate in November’s general election, which is 35,000 more votes than the margin that separated Perdue and Ossoff the first time around.

To be clear, that doesn’t mean these voters will break Democratic — but so far, the early vote has been quite good for Democrats. I really want to get a better sense of what Election Day turnout looks like and how that complicates this picture. But in the meantime, who are these voters who voted in the runoff but not in the general?

It would also match what you found, Nate, about how Warnock would have done against Loeffler in a head-to-head matchup in November — you found by using a formula from our congressional model that Warnock would actually have won a two-way race on Nov. 3 by about 1.5 points.