What Happened This Week In Washington — And Georgia

It would also match what you found, Nate, about how Warnock would have done against Loeffler in a head-to-head matchup in November — you found by using a formula from our congressional model that Warnock would actually have won a two-way race on Nov. 3 by about 1.5 points.

So far, Warnock is doing just a hair better than Ossoff — he leads by 11.8 points vs. Ossoff’s 11.4. That would also match the gap in the final polls of the state, which showed Warnock doing better by a few tenths of a point.

So far, eight counties have reported 95 percent or more of their expected vote, and they split basically 50-50 in terms of how the parties are performing in relation to the razor-thin presidential margin. And one, Pulaski County in south central Georgia, actually is split, with Perdue and Warnock slightly outperforming the November presidential results.