Q: Who else should we expect to drop after the first two contests? Fiorina? Carson? — commenter Dana Renee
A: For what it’s worth, our forecast model calculates a dropout probability for each candidate. If this year is like the past, we probably won’t see very many dropouts before New Hampshire, but they’ll pick up significantly after that. Here are the chances it assigns each candidate of dropping out by the time of the Feb. 20 South Carolina primary.
| CANDIDATE | DROPOUT |
|---|---|
| Santorum | 62.6% |
| Christie | 57.1% |
| Paul | 56.8% |
| Fiorina | 56.8% |
| Huckabee | 52.7% |
| Carson | 45.0% |
| Kasich | 41.1% |
| Bush | 29.5% |
| Rubio | 23.4% |
| Cruz | 22.5% |
| Trump | 5.9% |