What Went Down In The Fourth Democratic Debate

I don’t think Castro is helping himself so far in this debate. He definitely isn’t repeating the kind of attack that got panned in the past debate. But if he keeps this up, he’s going to have the opposite problem after tonight — where nobody is talking about him afterward.

That’s interesting, Nate. And those two would be who you would guess an issue like Syria coming to the fore would help. Right?

O’Rourke and Klobuchar are both having good nights, but they’ll need more than a good night.

We’ve spent a lot of time talking about which candidates impeachment might be good or bad for, but not much time on Syria — and the answer based on tonight’s debate might be that it’s an issue Biden and Buttigieg are happy to talk about, more so than the other candidates.

Biden just suggested that NATO would basically be eliminated by Putin and Trump if Trump wins a second term. That was an interesting idea. Had not thought about it before.

Biden mentions that he’s spent the most time “alone” with Putin and Erdogan. It’s worth noting during this foreign policy portion of the debate that he was selected as Obama’s VP in part because of his foreign policy experience.

No, but I did have “Bernie Putin cosplay,” weirdly.

Did anyone have “awkward Sanders-Biden side-hug” on their debate bingo card?

Castro made his response to the Syria question all about Trump, comparing his actions in Syria to “caging kids on the border.”

On foreign policy, the candidates are generally saying “Trump is bad,” with Biden saying that while also noting his experience and Buttigieg saying that while also being eloquent and citing his military experience. This conversation has basically shown that it’s Tulsi vs. the field on this issue. But the conversation has not explained many of their actual differences — which I think are largely that Warren/Sanders are more anti-war/intervention than Biden/Obama.

I’m surprised how absent Obama’s name is from this debate.

Castro mentions the Iran nuclear deal that Trump backed out of but does so without making mention of Obama, who was president when the deal was made. If you’re a Democrat running for president, I think you name-check Obama at every opportunity, and Castro should have there.

Harris was very strong on that answer — she attacked Trump and talked about the Syria crisis in a way that lay people can understand by saying Trump just gave a bunch of ISIS guys a “get out of jail free card.”

Gabbard is a true oddity in this race and, in some ways, in contemporary American politics. She’s got some views, particularly on foreign policy, that align with Trump. She voted in favor of restricting some refugee policies and wants to leave Assad in power in Syria. It’s unclear where her campaign has to go as far as reaching new supporters if she continues to take fringe views. That said, those who like her really like her. And she’s gotten some approval from odd corners for a Democrat — from Steve Bannon and Ron Paul, among others.

I tend to forget about Buttigieg in these things, but he’s maybe been the third-most-consistent debater, after Warren and Booker. And he’s one of the few non-Warren candidates who hasn’t been losing ground in the polls lately.

While the candidates are being asked whether Turkey should remain in NATO, it seems relevant to mention there actually is no mechanism to expel a country from NATO.

Foreign policy was 11th on the list of issues voters care most about tonight according to our FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll. Climate change was fourth. I know I’m beating a dead polar bear here, it has been honestly amazing to me how much these debates have been avoiding an issue that seriously matters to the voters these candidates are trying to appeal to.

Sanders is getting at the real question here, which is how does a new president clean up the broken trust left by the Trump administration’s international policies?

I think Trump’s policy this week, moving troops from Syria and allowing the Kurds to be attacked, is basically condemned by all of the candidates, except for maybe Gabbard. What the U.S. should be doing in the Syrian civil war is a somewhat separate issue.

Smart note from friend of the site Ariel Edwards-Levy:

Gabbard was really going hard after voters who like Buttigieg but don’t trust him on foreign policy … I guess? Not sure who she thinks needed to hear this particular line of attack.

Just what everyone foresaw: a Buttigieg-Gabbard face-off over Syria. But seriously, it makes sense given that they’re the only two veterans on stage and they have obvious differences on American foreign policy.

It’s interesting to see when Biden emphasizes his time in the Obama administration and when he doesn’t. The conflict in Syria was a real struggle for the Obama administration, and Obama made a number of choices on Syria that were not popular. And Biden did not name-check Obama when he was responding to the question about Syria.

Did everyone decide it was “gang up on Liz” night?

Sarah’s right — voters really don’t care that much about foreign policy. A quick perusal of what people say is “very important” in Economist/YouGov polling suggests that they’re much more likely to focus on issues like health care, the environment, the economy or, heck, social security than foreign policy or the use of military force.

Biden always seems most comfortable and passionate when talking about foreign policy. If this were a foreign policy election, he’d be a much stronger candidate. But Sarah, yes, this is definitely not a foreign policy election.

Gabbard really about to lean into her out-there Assad stance … and by “Assad stance,” I mean her saying that Assad should not be removed from office.

The flip side of Warren being treated as a front-runner is that Biden has taken less incoming fire than in past debates. And frankly, I think it’s helped him, because Biden has always been better in these things with his initial responses than his counter-responses. He’s had a good debate so far IMO, but with a lower degree of difficulty.

Only 2.9 percent of respondents in our poll with Ipsos this week listed foreign affairs as the issue most important to them in the Democratic primary.

But Lee, voters don’t care about foreign policy

According to a YouGov survey from October, 47 percent of Americans — including 60 percent of Democrats and 25 percent of Republicans — thought Trump’s recent support of Turkey’s military operation aimed at eliminating Kurdish forces in Syria was the wrong decision. Sixteen percent said it was the right decision, and 37 percent said they don’t know.

Ooooo, foreign policy. An area where the president actually has power.

So, besides climate change, there’s a lot of science-related policies that — despite my wildest hopes and dreams — realistically aren’t going to make it into tonight’s debate. Now seems like a good time to let you know that Booker and Castro have come down hard in favor of a ban on animal testing for cosmetics. Also, both are anti-puppy mill.

At the first break, Warren has spoken by far the most words of any of the candidates

As usual, Biden is mostly meh and rambling, with a few zingers. Warren is holding her cool. Klobuchar is doing well. O’Rourke is doing well. Buttigieg is doing well. I think Booker’s peace and love stuff plays well, but it’s unlikely to lift him in the polls. Harris seems to be struggling to get a lift.

My first thought is that Buttigieg and Klobuchar were strong in critiquing Warren, in particular. So I’d go with them as early winners because they successfully differentiated themselves.

I feel like most of Booker’s responses tonight have been centered around chastising everyone else for divisiveness. I don’t know if that’s a good tactic or not. But it’s definitely a thing.

Buttigieg and Klobuchar have both attacked Warren on health care, for being vague on the issue. She I think smartly noted that they don’t support a wealth tax. I have no idea who that’s good for electorally, though.

My thought so far is it would have been really interesting to see where the moderate vote would have gone if Biden didn’t get in the race. Contrary to pundit predictions, however, Biden hasn’t cratered, so we may never find out.

Booker is doing well. I think Warren is standing up to the increased incoming fire pretty well too. Sanders seems sharp.

As your Castro correspondent, it’s striking to note that he’s been much more muted tonight than in past debates. He just spent most of that previous answer talking about his childhood. I guess he might be trying to avoid the backlash from the last debate, where he was quite aggressive in going after Biden and viewers didn’t like it. But it also means he’s really not standing out – and he needs to, if he’s going to make it into the next debate.

Winners so far: Sanders, Klobuchar, the Washington Nationals. I also think Warren has been perfectly fine overall, although with some highs and lows. And Biden has been decent too, just kind of absent.

Alright, first commercial break of the evening. What stands out to folks so far? Who’s winning? Losing?

Buttigieg and Klobuchar have both attacked Warren for being vague on health care. She, I think, smartly noted that they don’t support a wealth tax. I have no idea who all of that’s good for electorally.

As the Booker respondent, I think he’s been pretty kumbaya so far — basically “stop disagreeing,” which isn’t really possible in a debate full of ambitious people trying to become a party’s nominee. I don’t see how this helps Booker, but he’s in a tough spot as it is.

Cory Booker just said that candidates on stage shouldn’t tear each other down. According to a YouGov poll from October, 40 percent of Democrats feel the party is “more united” than usual, 16 percent feel it’s “more divided,” while 36 percent said it is “about the same as usual.” The share of Democrats who said the party is more united is up by 10 percentage points from mid-September and four percentage points from late September.

Perry, it kinda seems like Booker has shifted into “I want to be Warren or Biden’s VP” mode?

As was speculated, the rest of the candidates are really going after Warren tonight. However, in doing so they are giving her way more time to respond than anyone else. Unless they really throw her off her game, it’s hard to foresee how that ends up being winning math for the field.