FiveThirtyEight
Clare Malone

Here’s something I’m wondering: is Buttigieg’s sort of aggressive/sharp tone going to play well with voters? Or is he going to see some sort of “meanie” poll tax that Castro did after the previous debate? My sense is he’s been consistently sharper and more aggressive throughout the debate than Castro was with Biden, but Buttigieg was most attack-centric against O’Rourke, who isn’t a favored candidate the way Biden is.

Galen Druke

I wouldn’t call being one of these 12 “quite a bit” for Steyer. It’s like buying yourself a trophy after not winning a race. Sure, it looks cool, but you didn’t win. And he won’t win.

Nate Silver

Prediction markets tonight so far have Warren and Biden losing a bit of ground to the rest of the field. But it’s worth keeping in mind that the conventional wisdom after the last debate (and my initial reaction, too!) was that some of the lesser-known candidates had done relatively well. But none of them got much of a boost in the polls. Instead, Warren continued rising.


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