What Went Down During The First Presidential Debate

Well, we weren’t tracking interruptions tonight, but maybe we should have.

Tonight was often disorienting and hard to follow. We’re still processing, honestly, what we just saw, especially considering it involved a number of norm-defying moments. Sometimes debates have been more split-screen discussions where the candidates aren’t terribly hard on each other. But that wasn’t the case tonight. Biden accused Trump of being “the worst president” ever, and vice versa. It’s unclear who really “won” the debate now, but to relive the blog in all its chronological glory, keep scrolling.

Be sure to check back tomorrow for our post-debate poll with Ipsos and our crew’s reaction to the debate on the podcast. Headlines from the live blog crew below:

• Perry: Trump Interrupts Biden, Wallace And Americans’ Ability To Follow The Debate
• Maggie: What If The Presidential Debate Was Like the Worst Fight Your Uncles Ever Had At Thanksgiving
• Kaleigh: First Presidential Debate Hits A New Low, In A Year Of Nothing But Lows
• Amelia: Everyone Lost The First Presidential Debate
• Nathaniel: This Was The Worst Debate America Has Ever Had
• Geoffrey: Maybe The Only Debate Takeaway Is That Trump Still Refuses To Say He Will Accept The Results Of The Election
• Shom: An Anticipated Debate Leaves Much To Be Desired
• Micah: 2020 Is Perfectly Encapsulated In First Presidential Debate
• Galen: Trump Uses Debate As Metaphor For His Governing Style: Chaos
• Chris: Response On Twitter Suggests No One Wins Race-To-The-Bottom Debate
• Meena: There Are So Many More Days Left In 2020

And here’s our post-debate reaction podcast:

Goodnight America. See you next debate. I’ve got to get to bed.

This debate was a mess. I doubt that it changed anyone’s mind, and I have a hard time seeing how anyone learned anything new from it. In general, Trump dominated tonight, both for good and bad reasons for him. His aggressive interruptions appeared designed to fluster Biden, and at the beginning I think it was working; certainly it prevented Biden from making his case to the audience. Later on in the debate, though, Trump had some bad moments, such as not condemning white supremacists and viciously attacking Biden’s son. So in the end I don’t think he appealed to anyone outside his own base.

Trump’s constant interrupting made it really hard to follow the debate. His tone (like basically saying that Biden is dumb) was unlike anything in a previous debate I can remember, even Trump’s own debates in 2016. My other big takeaway was Trump wouldn’t agree to things that one would have assumed a president could agree to: 1. emphatically condemning white nationalists 2. urging his supporters not to be violent if the election result was not immediately clear 3. acknowledging the results and transferring power if he is defeated.

I’m not 100 percent sure I buy the “this was the worst debate ever” framing. Biden wasn’t especially sharp, particularly in the first 30 minutes of the debate. But he was … fine. He wasn’t the guy who was constantly interrupting, or who refused to commit to respecting the results of the election, or who ducked the question when he was asked to denounce white supremacy. And he wasn’t the guy who needed a win, since he’s ahead in the polls.

A reminder that this was just the first debate. There are still two more presidential debates.

I have to say that this debate feels less like a debate and more like a series of unrelated back-and-forths. I was looking out for whether Trump would make a commitment to a democratic process, and I have to say that I don’t feel very good about that part.

The year 2020 has been miserable for Americans, and listening to this debate for roughly 90 minutes was pretty damn terrible. Constant crosstalk and interruptions, with nothing positive to take away about the state of democratic debate and discussion in the country. Even more disheartening was Trump’s refusal to say he would accept the result of the election or try to keep his supporters calm as the vote count goes on after Election Day, while also making misleading or false claims about mail-in ballots. The idea of having two more of these face-offs is distressing.

Kaleigh, my general political cynicism levels have definitely gone up in the last hour and a half.

This debate doesn’t seem to have changed anything up. Response on Twitter suggests pretty negative response toward both candidates, but nothing that would change the trajectory of the race.

I’m struggling a little here, Sarah, because this debate was so chaotic and difficult to follow. It got extremely mean and personal. Wallace totally lost control. It’s hard to feel like anyone won, because as viewers, it feels like we all frankly lost. I just can’t imagine a voter watching this and thinking … wow, I’m excited about my choices this year.

Why exactly are we surprised? That’s what I can’t figure out. Did Trump do a single thing that was unexpected or different from his approach since 2015?

Was the moderation really any worse than any other political debate? This is the perennial complaint.

I am simultaneously frustrated with the lack of moderator fact-checking throughout this thing and completely unsure how anyone could possibly fact-check what just happened.

I think this debate would have been improved if it were held via Zoom, with the meeting moderator holding mute capabilities.

Um … what did I just watch?

I can see the few punches that landed being effective in firing up the respective bases, but for undecided voters, this just feels like it would turn them off from voting at all, which is … not good.

This debate feels like 2020. It started loud and got chaotic and ended with ???

I’m going back to my observation that this is about setting the terms of debate. Once you’ve started asking about election integrity in this way, you’ve basically conceded that norms have eroded heavily.

That was quite the disjointed 90 or so minutes, but setting that aside, what really stood out to you tonight? How do you think this debate affects the final month or so of the election? Did anything surprise you or change your minds?

All comparative political scientists who study democratic backsliding are grimacing right now.

If Trump wins, what does he do with this prediction of widespread fraud?

According to a late August Suffolk University poll, 24 percent of registered voters said that if their preferred candidate was not elected in November, they would not accept the outcome of the election as being fair and accurate. This was true of 29 percent of Democrats, 19 percent of Republicans, and 21 percent of independents.

If Trump really believed that the “real polls” had him ahead, he wouldn’t be engaging in all this talk about fraud.

Wallace asking for a pledge to stop electoral violence is important for maintaining democratic norms, but Trump’s push for poll-watching signals his lack of commitment.

Trump calling for his supporters to watch for fraud at the polls is a recipe for voter intimidation.

President Trump has not committed to a peaceful transfer of power should he lose the election. In a Monmouth University poll released yesterday, 41 percent of registered voters said that Trump’s statements bothered them a great deal, and another 14 percent said that his statements bothered them some. However, 44 percent said that Trump’s statements didn’t bother them much or at all. Among Republicans, only 21 percent said that they were bothered some or a great deal, whereas 83 percent of Democrats said that they were bothered some or a great deal.

Trump keeps saying it could be months — states have to finalize their votes by Dec. 8 and the Electoral College has to vote on Dec. 14. So you’re talking a little over 30 days, not months.

Well and it’s ironic, Sarah, because there have been lots of reports about how his campaign has had to work to undo some of Trump’s anti-vote-by-mail rhetoric — because they want to encourage their supporters to get mail-in ballots too!

And if you were wondering how USPS became a political football, there’s a long history there.

“You go and vote” … and we are back to dismissing the risks of COVID-19 transmission.

Recent work shows that methods to eliminate double voting actually tend to “… impede approximately 300 legitimate votes for each double vote prevented.”

Trump is now complaining that we may go a week (or longer) without knowing the result of the election. That has definitely become a higher possibility with recent court decisions in Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that have extended the deadline for states to receive absentee ballots.

In states where ballots have a grace period up to, for example, November 10, those ballots must be postmarked by Election Day. The grace period allows for USPS delays, which are already a problem.

The irony is that there are a lot of different ways for ballots to be sent out — in some states you have to request, some send them out as a matter of course, others are sending ballots out as a special 2020 measure. Our decentralized system is confusing, but it is also probably a good barrier against coordinated voter fraud (of which there is no evidence).

It was an interesting set of positions Biden tried to straddle, Clare. He both tried to assuage voters who might be concerned about voting right now and also tried to discount Trump’s attempts to discredit the results of the election. And now we’ve seen Trump not shying away from that earlier position — if anything, Trump is leaning in harder to the election being fraught now?

The FBI said last week that there is no evidence of a widespread voter fraud effort this year.

Biden says he will accept the result whether he wins or loses and says it doesn’t matter whether Trump is willing to accept it or not. Based on talking to experts earlier this summer, I wouldn’t be so confident that the transition will take care of itself.

Trump has repeatedly questioned the validity of the election because of the increased prevalence of mail voting. But only nine states (plus Washington, D.C.) are actually mailing ballots to every registered voter, which is what Trump is objecting to — and only one of those states (Nevada) is actually competitive. So even if mail voting benefited Democrats (and it doesn’t), it wouldn’t significantly affect the outcome of the election.

Last week, President Trump declined to commit to a peaceful transition of power should he lose the 2020 election. In a poll by YouGov conducted after those comments, only 30 percent of Americans said they thought there would be a peaceful transition of power if the election outcome were contested. Forty-eight percent said they thought there would not be a peaceful transition of power in the event of a contested election. Twenty-two percent were undecided.

Biden responding to this question in a way that suggests he thinks Trump’s talk about respecting the election result is mostly a way to increase cynicism and reduce turnout.

If you’re concerned about voting and aren’t sure if you can vote early or by mail, or how to do it if you can, we’ve got you covered with our state-by-state guide. Most importantly: If you are planning to vote by mail, request and return your ballot as early as possible!

Biden coming in with some soothing vibes about voting! Pretty effective.

According to a September poll from NBC News/SurveyMonkey, only 12 percent of Americans said they were very confident that November’s election would be conducted in a fair and equal way, while 29 percent said they were somewhat confident, and 58 percent were either not very confident or not at all confident. The skepticism reaches across the aisle, with 65 percent of Republicans, 57 percent of independents, and 52 percent of Democrats saying they were not very or not at all confident.

Trump and Biden supporters differ quite a bit on whether they think the 2020 election will be fair. Biden supporters think it will be, by about a 20-point margin, while Trump backers are split about 50-50 on whether it will be fair. Biden supporters are also more likely to say they will believe the results of the election regardless of the result: 64 percent say they will, compared to 57 percent of Trump supporters.

As a believer in the Median Voter Theorem, I’m not sure that Trump saying, “Oh no, the left is going to be mad at Biden!” is good messaging for Trump.

The National Resources Defense Council has estimated that the costs of climate change, in terms of natural disasters and other issues, cost the U.S. $1.9 trillion dollars every year.

This happened during Trump’s attack on Hunter Biden. It’s notable because it’s a Republican state representative in a non-competitive seat.