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Election 2020: Live Results And Analysis

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Trump and Biden supporters differ quite a bit on whether they think the 2020 election will be fair. Biden supporters think it will be, by about a 20-point margin, while Trump backers are split about 50-50 on whether it will be fair. Biden supporters are also more likely to say they will believe the results of the election regardless of the result: 64 percent say they will, compared to 57 percent of Trump supporters.

More Biden backers think the election will be fair

Share of respondents who think the election will be fair or unfair by who they’re more likely to vote for, according to a FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll

more likely to vote for fair unfair
Trump 49.8%
-
48.0%
-
Biden 59.2
-
39.7
-

Respondents were asked to rate how likely they were to vote for each candidate on a scale of 0-10. Respondents were deemed more likely to vote for whichever candidate they gave a higher score. Respondents who gave both candidates the same score are not included.

Data comes from polling done by Ipsos for FiveThirtyEight, using Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel, a probability-based online panel that is recruited to be representative of the U.S. population. The poll was conducted Sept. 21-28 among a general population sample of adults, with 3,133 respondents and a margin of error of +/- 1.9 percentage points.