FiveThirtyEight
Kaleigh Rogers

It’s really hard to see how Trump’s argument that “Biden would have been worse” will land. Biden wasn’t president. Trump was. This is what happened. Hypothetical alternate realities seem really weak as a defense.

Galen Druke

Biden said up front that he is not going to continuously fact-check Trump. It appears his strategy is to laugh repeatedly while Trump is talking, which gets picked up on the split-screen and seems to distract Trump but doesn’t get dinged as an interruption.

Laura Bronner

The top issue for respondents who lean towards Biden is COVID-19: 44 percent say it’s the most important thing. This reflects quite a difference to Trump supporters, who prioritize the economy above any other issue.

Voters who lean toward Biden care most about COVID-19

Among respondents who were more likely to vote for Biden than Trump, share who named each issue as the top one facing the U.S., according to a FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll

issue share of biden supporters
COVID-19 43.7%
Racial inequality 11.5
Health care 9.9
The economy 9.6
Climate change 8.4
Economic inequality 4.2
The Supreme Court 4.2
Violent crime 1.8
Education 1.5
Other 1.4
Immigration 1.1
Gun policy 0.8
Abortion 0.1

Respondents were asked to rate how likely they were to vote for each candidate on a scale of 0-10. Respondents were deemed more likely to vote for whichever candidate they gave a higher score. Respondents who gave both candidates the same score are not included.

Data comes from polling done by Ipsos for FiveThirtyEight, using Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel, a probability-based online panel that is recruited to be representative of the U.S. population. The poll was conducted Sept. 21-28 among a general population sample of adults, with 3,133 respondents and a margin of error of +/- 1.9 percentage points.


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