FiveThirtyEight
David Firestone

It’s really remarkable how unscathed Clinton has been tonight by the other candidates. She skated right past questions on Benghazi and her private email server, and on one of her most vulnerable issues — her vote to authorize the war in Iraq — she drew only indirect criticism from Sanders and Chafee, who missed a huge opportunity to draw a sharp contrast with her foreign policy. The moderators have tried to get the other candidates to rough her up, but about the best they’ve been able to do is get O’Malley to say that she may be a little too eager to use military force. Sanders supporters are likely to disagree with Clinton’s support for the Patriot Act, but instead of criticizing her directly for that vote, Sanders loosed a familiar broadside at government surveillance and did not link her to it. Clinton’s skills at debating are clearly evident tonight, but she has benefited most greatly from a decorousness by the other candidates that is rarely on display during Republican debates.
Jody Avirgan

Bernie Is Going Where The Bernie Fans Are

“I go around the country and talk to all sorts of people” Sanders said. He’s certainly been spending time in the primary states of Iowa and the Vermont-adjoining New Hampshire, but many of the iconic Sanders crowds have actually been in large, liberal bastions — places like Austin, Texas; Los Angeles; and Portland (both of ‘em!). This is not just because that’s where the Sanders fans already are — it’s a buzz-building strategy. And with Sanders raising much of his money online, geography may matter less to him in these early stages. “The news of large crowds manages to make its way to people, particularly in Iowa and New Hampshire,” Sanders adviser Tad Devine told Politico. “It’s demonstrating that the message Bernie is delivering is connecting with a large audience.” And as Politico points out, that’s a strategy that Obama also employed as he was building momentum in 2007.
Nate Silver

Yes, it’s a crude measure of candidate quality. But watching Lincoln Chafee struggle tonight — a man who has been elected both governor and senator in Rhode Island — is a reminder that it’s much easier to be elected in a little state than a big one. In fact, the average Democrat on stage tonight is from a state with just 12 electoral votes. (That average will fall to 11 if Joe Biden enters the race later.) By contrast, the average Republican this year hails from states worth 19 or 21 electoral votes on average, depending on whether you count Carly Fiorina as being from Virginia (where she currently makes her residence) or California (where she ran for senate in 2010).

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