What Went Down On Night One Of The First Democratic Debates

This conversation could be interesting if they actually get specific. So far the candidates have mostly focused on being opposed to whatever Trump does, without giving specifics on their plans to address a surge in people apprehended at the border and immigrants living in the country illegally. Castro and O’Rourke are exceptions to this. They have actually put out their own immigration plans.

Booker mentioned two policies protecting immigrants — DACA and Temporary Protected Status — that the Trump administration has tried to revoke. But he did not attack Trump directly.

de Blasio is totally one of those guys that talks to you on the elevator.

Booker refers to the father and young daughter from the AP photo by their names in his response. Likely speaking to criticisms that the image lacked recognition of their humanity.

Castro jumps in with more elements of his immigration plan, specifically decriminalizing illegal border crossings, changing it from a criminal to civil penalty. He’s trying to make his play here on an issue that’s a key one for him.

Castro is right — he was the first candidate to release an immigration plan. He’s actually been one of the most substantive candidates on policy after Warren, and he was one of the first to come out for impeachment, but he hasn’t gotten a lot of attention for it.

Serious (?) idea: Why not have one of the debates in Spanish?

Booker is doing his answer in Spanish on immigration. This might explain that look he gave when O’Rourke started speaking Spanish earlier …

It looks I need to learn to speak Spanish for this job. Two candidates in 38 minutes.

And the conversation moves to immigration. It’s an issue on which Americans — and Democrats specifically — have moved in a liberal direction in reaction to Trump’s election and his policies.

After half an hour of debating, Warren still led in words spoken.

Booker becomes the second candidate to speak in Spanish.

I think Castro’s answer on this, tying Trump’s “metering” immigration policy to the deaths of the father and his young daughter this week, is a good moment for him to showcase his expertise.

Castro had a good start, saying what is happening at the border should “piss us all off” but then starts talking about “metering” and goes into policy talk that I think voters might have trouble following.

Castro gets the first question on immigration, and he talks about his comprehensive immigration plan. This is an area where you’d think he could make progress. “Piss us all off” is strong language outside of Trump’s orbit.

De Blasio had a good moment. Not a game-changer or anything, but candidates at his place in the polls have to make the news, because it’s not coming to them, and he did that reasonably well.

Inslee is doing surprisingly well. (Again, maybe I shouldn’t be surprised!) But the focus keeps coming back to Warren.

Warren. She’s getting questions thrown her way and has been able to jump in on other candidates questions.

A lot of them are doing fine, Micah. Warren, Inslee, Beto, Delaney.

Beto.

OK, after the first commercial break, who’s doing well? Gimme names only.

Booker says Big Pharma should be held criminally liable in the opioid crisis — many pharmaceuticals are based out of New Jersey. This seems to be his softball question. It’s a bit of a trend tonight, with everyone getting at least one question that plays to their strength. With Booker, I’m not sure he’s had a breakout moment, though, at least not yet.

So far, candidates seem to be reaching out rather than focusing on groups that might be thought of as their base. It wasn’t Castro but O’Rourke who spoke in Spanish, while Castro spoke about women and trans Americans.

As we talk about how much Warren has spoken, I want to remind everyone of this research about how we think women talk more than they do.

Castro, who is maybe the least well-defined of any of the candidates so far, gives a pretty woke answer on abortion, citing the trans community and the notion of “reproductive justice.” I’m not … super sure that’s a smart direction for him tactically, as there’s a lot of competition on the left, and as Hispanic Democrats tend to be comparatively moderate.

It’s worth noting that when countries legalize abortion, abortion rates appear to fall. The same is true with restrictive abortion laws.

True, Geoff. They all agree on protecting a woman’s right to abortion. But I think it is interesting that abortion and reproductive rights are so central to a presidential race. Historically the discussion doesn’t move beyond SCOTUS appointments.

According to an April 2019 Ipsos/NPR poll, 57 percent of Americans think pharmaceutical companies that manufacture opioids “should be held responsible for making opioid abuse worse,” while 29 percent disagree. The poll also found that 71 percent of Americans think the government “should do more to restrict opioid distribution.”

Warren was asked if she would put any limits on an abortion. And she did not name a limit. I wonder if any of the candidates would. The Democratic Party is very much embracing abortion rights in this campaign, an issue likely to raised through the general election.

As they should be, Clare, since she has a much better chance of winning the nomination than most of these people.

What does it mean to support reproductive justice rather than reproductive freedom, apart from being an applause line?

I’m going to be very interested to see what Warren’s total talk time is by the end of the debate. They’re certainly throwing a lot of questions her way.

Only 27 percent of registered voters said in a Fox News poll this month that they think the Supreme Court should overturn Roe v. Wade, including 45 percent of Republicans and 16 percent of Democrats

With Biden’s flip on the Hyde Amendment, abortion is not an issue where there’s much contrast among the candidates.

Almost two-thirds of adults (62 percent), including 69 percent of Democrats and 59 percent of Republicans, either “somewhat” or “strongly” support allowing adults not covered by their employer to purchase health insurance through Medicaid, according to a March 2019 Morning Consult poll. The poll also found that 61 percent of adults, including 66 percent of Democrats and 61 percent of Republicans, either “somewhat” or “strongly” support allowing people between the ages of 50 and 64 to buy into Medicare.

The New York Times did a nice breakdown of different estimates of how much a single-payer option would cost compared to the current system. TL;DR — it’s complicated. Most consumers would probably end up spending a lot less. But some people would probably end up spending more on taxes they save on medical expenses

At the Clyburn Fish Fry in South Carolina last week, Inslee, like the others, had 60 seconds to introduce himself. I’m pretty sure he mentioned climate change no more than once.

To make a somewhat obvious point, this is a version of Warren that’s going right after the remaining Bernie voters even though he’s not on the stage.

In his answer about why he wants Medicare for All, Booker brings up the fact that black voters have a lower life expectancy. Certainly a way to differentiate his answer from the others.

So far, the candidates who are the most outspoken on women’s issues? Two men, Inslee and Castro.

Inslee finally got to speak, and it’s a forceful defense of women’s health-care rights. That’s now twice that Inslee has spoken and not mentioned climate change.

So, about a quarter of an hour into the debate, Warren was leading in the speaking time race (at least as measured by words spoken):

Booker and Beto, by trying to straddle the line between moderate and liberal, end up giving fairly vague answers. So Booker says he is for Medicare for All, but he wouldn’t raise his hand 5 minutes ago! Maybe this works for them electorally. But just watching it, it’s clear that they are being vague and politician-like.

Booker expands lens of health care debate by talking about how it affects low-income communities, particularly ones of color, and how it can hurt kids’ ability to get an education. Booker needs to pick up ground in places like South Carolina to have some chance, and that sort of answer speaks to that.

Inslee, raising his hand to be called on, is being way too polite.

Cory Booker is totally avoiding saying anything substantive about his health care plan.

It’s getting aggressive now. Delaney is bashing Medicare-for-all; DeBlasio is bashing private insurance. Delaney is perhaps the strongest voice in the field for moderate policy. (Biden really is fairly vague on policy.)

It’s good that O’Rourke brought up the U.S. mental health care system. It’s bad right now. If you want to reduce gun violence. If you’re in favor of less crime. If you want a whole bunch of things that aren’t specifically about health care, you should be supportive of plans that increase access to quality mental health care in this country.

First interjection of the night from de Blasio. And he might be trying to grab the spotlight because he has a steep hill to climb tonight — he was the only one with a net negative favorability among Democratic voters who plan to vote in the primary in our poll with Morning Consult.

In case anyone is wondering why the candidates aren’t doubling down on ending private insurance, take a look at this Kaiser Family Foundation poll from January: 58 percent of respondents said they’d oppose Medicare for All if it would eliminate private insurance companies.