My Takeaways
I’m gonna talk about one of the candidates I’m focused on, Buttigieg (sorry, Steyer), plus a bit about the rest of the field. This was … a weird debate, and I’m not sure about how to gauge the overall impact. I thought Klobuchar and Booker were the strongest from the start of the night to the finish, but given their position in the polls, they probably need to generate some post-debate buzz and build some momentum over the course of the next few weeks; tonight alone won’t do that much if it doesn’t change the narrative about them. That’s doubly true for Booker, who needs a lot of help to qualify for the December debate. (Klobuchar does have a bit of traction in Iowa and has made the debate next month, by contrast.)
Buttigieg took oddly little incoming fire from the incoming candidates, except for that exchange with Gabbard at the end. I suppose that benefits him, although it’s sometimes a good thing for a candidate to seem like the center of attention, and Buttigieg didn't seem like the center of attention tonight. I thought he was better in the second half of the debate than in the first, but I’m actually not sure it was among his stronger debates overall.
Among the top three candidates in national polls — Biden, Warren, Sanders — I personally thought Sanders had the most consistent evening. I’d note, though, that voters in our polls have consistently liked Warren’s performance in these debates, even if pundits haven’t.
As for Biden — well, it sure seemed like the typical pattern of him being reasonably good in the first half of the debate and then meandering into some very strange gaffes in the second half. But that hasn’t really hurt him in the polls so far. His performance might not do much to quiet the talk, however, from donors and party elites searching for an alternative to Biden, whether that’s someone else on the stage or someone who isn’t yet running.