What Went Down In The Fifth Democratic Debate

Quick — what’s the first question the moderators are going to ask … health care?

Tonight I’ll be watching Biden, who continues to be a peculiar front-runner of sorts. He continues to lead in the national average of polls, but individual state polls are potentially troubling for his prospects. For instance, the latest Selzer poll out of Iowa (it’s an A+ joint) shows Biden tied for third with Sanders at 15 percent, while Warren gets 16 percent and Buttigieg is out in front with 25 percent. That’s nothing new for Biden, though; he has been consistently lower in the Iowa polls. In New Hampshire, things seem more fluid, with some polls showing Biden up, others finding a Warren and the most recent one showing Buttigieg in the lead. Biden’s team is quick to say that their advantages lie in the more diverse early-voting states of Nevada and South Carolina and in the many states that will vote on Super Tuesday.

So first and foremost, I’ll be watching to see how Biden deals with the rising threat of Buttigieg. The mayor of South Bend, Indiana, is seen as occupying a similar ideological space to Biden (moderate), but his not-so-hidden advantage with voters is that he’s young and new. I’m curious to see if Biden will point out Buttigieg’s continued struggles to win over nonwhite voters (more on that here in my dispatch from the Buttigieg campaign bus) and his lack of experience. As always with Biden, there’s a curiosity about how dexterous — or not — he’ll be in his wording and argumentation. He has struggled somewhat in these debates, but perhaps a smaller number of candidates on stage will suit him better, and perhaps Buttigieg will be the one to take more of the flack given his recent rise in certain state polls.

I’m also interested to see the contours of the healthcare debate and whether Biden can pick up any momentum as Warren takes criticism for her plan and her subsequent revisions to it. I think he comes from a position of relative strength on the health care issue — many voters fear the unknowns of a total system overhaul — and I’ll be watching to see how much he capitalizes on that this evening.

Ahead of the start time, Brian Williams just called the four moderators the “fearsome foursome.” ICYMI, all the moderators are women, tonight. According to Morning Consult, women moderators have asked 30 percent of the questions so far in these debates. But women will ask them all tonight. Back in June, the Democratic National Committee announced that it would require every debate to include at least one woman moderator, but this is the first debate where all moderators will be women.