FiveThirtyEight
Micah Cohen

If tonight’s debate live blog feels a little more chippy, less-B.S.-indulgent than usual, well … this is the team’s 28th live blog this week. Fair warning.

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

Who I’m Watching: Elizabeth Warren

Tonight, I’ll be keeping an eye on Warren, a candidate who’s sure to be at the center of the action. The October debate was the first one that Warren entered as a co-front-runner, and she spent the night getting hit from all sides, particularly over her lack of a health care plan. Now she’s going into this evening’s debate with a detailed health care plan, but odds are she’ll spend a not-insignificant portion of the allotted two hours getting hit from all sides on that, too.

Why is that? Well, earlier this month, she rolled out a plan that amounts to a full-throated embrace of Medicare for All, promising to implement a sweeping single-payer system without raising middle-class taxes by “one penny.” But late last week, she announced that her administration would first build on existing laws, including the Affordable Care Act, and take up to three years to fully implement a universal single-payer Medicare for All system. Her embrace of Medicare for All has opened her up to criticism from her more moderate rivals — like Biden and Buttigieg, who have argued, among other things, that Americans don’t want a dramatic and expensive overhaul of the health care system that involves getting rid of private insurance. But by backing down from her original embrace of Medicare for All, she has also opened herself up to attacks from the left, with Sanders saying her plan doesn’t do enough to guard middle-class families from new costs.

I’ll be watching tonight to see how the latest installment of the Democratic primary’s health care drama unfolds on the debate stage and if Warren maintains her starring role. To be clear, Warren has done well in the debates so far. Even after having to defend herself quite vigorously at last month’s debate, she still earned the highest marks in our post-debate poll. But she’s also slipped in the polls in recent weeks. So tonight does have fairly high stakes for her, because it’s her first opportunity to publicly defend her solution on health care, which has emerged as one of the major issues in the primary. And with Buttigieg — her main rival for white college-educated voters — looking strong in the latest Iowa polls, there’s even more pressure on Warren to deliver a strong performance.

Poll Bot

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