A CONVENTION HALL!!!
Podium time!
Nate, Harris is clearly the Democratic frontrunner for 2024. But I’d put the odds of her becoming the next president at about 30 percent.
Nate, they are clearly under 50 percent. The result of any future presidential election is only about 50-50, and that’s not accounting for the fact she may not be Democrats’ next nominee. She is, however, the overwhelming favorite to be the first woman president, which is pretty notable.
Under 50 percent, but better than any other Democrat besides Biden.
OK, group, here’s a very on-brand-for-Nate question: Are the odds that Harris at some point becomes president over or under 50 percent?
That’s a really good point, Michael. And I’ve wondered how Harris would thread that needle. Clare wrote this for the site back in the primary, but Harris is notoriously guarded when it comes to her personal background and upbringing. This video has pushed back on this, though, and I’m curious how much of her own story she’ll share in her speech tonight when striking that balance.
This Momala montage is a pretty clear effort to navigate the sexist double bind women in leadership often face.
When women conform to masculinized notions of strong and competent leadership, they risk being characterized as aggressive, overly ambitious and unlikable — a “nasty woman,” as Trump labeled Hillary Clinton and recently described Harris. This is further compounded in Harris’s case by pernicious stereotypical tropes of the “angry black woman” — a trope the president has already deployed against her.
This is a sensitive subject, but some Republicans tried to sell the message that Obama didn’t care about white people during his presidency. That might be a harder sell with Harris, given that she is married to a white man and has white stepchildren.
As Harris gets ready to speak here, I think it’s worth noting that she had a pretty smooth rollout. No gaffes, no major negative storylines, no unearthed scandals, not all that much pushback from any major parts of the Democratic coalition.
A lot of talk here from Obama about the existential threat Trump poses to our democracy. This is not your normal convention speech from a former president. But these are not normal times.
Emcee Kerry Washington seemed moved herself by Obama’s speech.
Obama is speaking more forcefully in support of Black Lives Matter than he did in 2016.
The reporting that Obama asked to switch spots with Harris, so she could close tonight, is even more interesting given how hard that speech will be to follow.
Obama’s line about the Trump administration being willing to tear democracy down is such a striking thing for an American president to say about his successor.
Obama: “This administration has shown it will tear our democracy down if that’s what it takes.”
Is Obama tearing up a little bit here? He’s definitely getting emotional.
Chris, yeah, the emotional crescendo of this speech is striking. He started off a little detached and derisive about Trump, and now it’s ended here on a real emotionally blaring note.
Galen, don’t get me started.
One or the other!
So either Toastmasters or presidency for you, Chris?
Though I guess you get practice at speaking to a camera when you’re in the White House, too.
In a parliamentary democracy, where party leaders generally don’t have term limits, Obama might still be prime minister. (Although if you extend the comparison too far, he probably wouldn’t have won the 2008 primary either.)
So Barack Obama is the first DNC speaker to successfully get to Trump?
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1296275840649625601
Obama is expressing an unusual emotion in the coda to this speech: anger.
Obama’s speech at the John Lewis funeral basically compared Trump to Bull Connor. This is a fairly harsh speech as well. And Democrats, including both Barack and Michelle, are now just openly and repeatedly suggesting that Trump and Republicans will try to suppress Democratic votes.
Barack Obama makes me want to take a public speaking class.
“Do not let them take away your democracy,” Obama says, then becomes roughly the zillionth speaker of this DNC telling people to make a plan to vote. You think Democrats are worried about this?
Those folks are enough to be the margin of victory in swing states, Micah! Yeah, it’s really notable.
Obama now making a case against cynicism, a message that feels pretty poignant during … just the worst year.
Well, Micah, that might because Americans say they are really unhappy.
It was a theme in Clinton’s speech, too, right, Micah? Democrats really, really don’t want people to sit this one out.
Obama’s pace and cadence seems more adapted to having a live audience than some of the others. Overall, the big traditional speeches feel the most different from how they would have in the convention hall.
Signature Obama expressing his empathy for Americans of all colors in all different situations — even ones who dislike him.
It’s interesting how hard both Obamas have gone after people disenchanted by or apathetic about politics.
Obama just said our democracy is at stake. Those are pretty high stakes.
I’m thinking about what you said earlier about the dual themes of critiquing Trump and promoting Biden. It sort of feels like Obama would have preferred to focus on the Trump critique, but feels obligated to include the Biden stuff too.
Is this Trump trying to make “Obamagate” happen again? I never even understood what that “scandal” was supposed to be about. In any event, Trump (approval rating around 42 percent) is not going to win a popularity contest with Obama (favorability rating around 68 percent).
Lee, I guess Obama is willing to go all in. You might too if the sitting president became a political force while playing up the false conspiracy theory that you weren’t really an American.
Once upon a time, Obama gave a very different, but similarly urgent speech from a museum in Philadelphia. It was his 2008 speech defending his relationship with Rev. Jeremiah Wright, in which he spoke pretty bluntly (for the times) about the role of race in America. We made an audio documentary on the story behind the speech.
This is an interesting contrast with Michelle Obama’s speech. Hers was so intimate and emotional and urgent. Barack is much more restrained. I do think it’s a resonant speech, even though it’s not exactly passionate. But Michelle’s felt better pitched for this moment, when so many people are feeling ragged about everything happening in the world, including politics.
Well, Trump is watching, we know that:
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1296274065762717696
It’s remarkable how much credit Obama is giving Biden for major accomplishments in his administration, including helping him craft and pass the Affordable Care Act.
“Donald Trump hasn’t grown into the job, because he can’t,” and Trump treats the presidency like “one more reality show to get the attention he craves.” Money lines from Obama.
Obama mentions Biden’s response to Ebola, which was also a theme on Monday night.
I don’t know… I think Obama’s trying to paint an empathetic picture of Biden while also dismissing Trump’s leadership, and it’s hard to do both in one speech?
The speech isn’t just anti-Trump, as Obama now talks about Biden’s “empathy” and “decency.” A reminder that they are making some effort to build up Biden, not just tear down Trump.
Yeah, this is rough the way a parent would be. Not mad, but disappointed.
Obama is also underscoring the idea that Trump is not going to change. He’s telling voters: If Trump’s reelected, four more years of the same — or worse. Which obviously has been something we’ve heard from a lot of other people this week! But maybe it’s especially powerful to hear it from Obama.
Obama to nation: I’m not mad, I’m disappointed.