FiveThirtyEight
Matt Grossmann

In 2016, House Republicans collectively got more votes than Democrats, meaning they outperformed Trump (who lost the popular vote). Part of the reason is that voters expected Clinton to win, which tends to motivate a few voters to balance government by dividing party control. If voters expect Trump to lose again this year, it could actually slightly hurt Democratic chances in the House and Senate.

Michael Tesler

Very true, Micah. Women voted for Clinton at similar levels to Obama. Trump carried men by larger margin than anyone since 1988 and performed particularly well among the most sexist men.

Nathaniel Rakich

Biden guest starred on Mariska Hargitay’s show, “Law and Order: SVU,” back in 2016.


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