FiveThirtyEight
Sarah Frostenson

Oof, Chris. Wow. I wonder if that will be even harder tonight, now that Trump has agreed to go on Hannity’s show tonight at 9 p.m. over on Fox News. (At the very least, one might argue Trump is angling for that.)

Chris Jackson

Kicking off night 4, Biden and the Democrats still have a ways to go in order to break through the president’s dominance of the conversation on social media.

Julia Azari

Does A Negative Approach Work?

So far, the DNC has focused heavily on the shortcomings of the Trump administration. There have been stories about how immigration policies and the president’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic have affected individuals and families. Former presidents also offered their criticisms: Bill Clinton denounced Trump’s lack of leadership on the pandemic, and Barack Obama went even further, calling Trump a threat to the Constitution and American democracy.

Is this kind of negativity a good strategy, though? Possibly. It’s conventional wisdom that negativity turns voters off, and some early experimental research on the subject backs this up. But it’s not clear that this is always true. Negative advertising sometimes actually improves voter turnout. Furthermore, what political scientists call negative partisanship — party identification that’s mostly about disliking the other party — can help unify partisans. Provoking negative emotions like anger can also help mobilize voters and get them to the polls. So all this negativity might strike a somber tone, but it might also be a wise strategic move for the Democrats.


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