What Went Down At The December Democratic Primary Debate

I’m watching Sanders in tonight’s debate. And although he’s currently at a high point in his campaign (18.0 percent support, according to our national polling average), his standing has been remarkably steady, hovering between 14 and 18 percent. He really needs to break out of that range, though, to transform from a factional candidate into a nomination-bound front-runner. The problem for Sanders is that Biden’s numbers have also been remarkably steady, remaining between 25 and 28 percent. Something’s gotta give, probably for both Sanders and Biden, if Sanders is to surpass the polling leader.

Working to his advantage is the fact that Sanders is a consistently strong debate performer who delivers a message of economic justice in a rousing style — but that has only taken him so far. If Sanders wants to use tonight’s debate to break out of his usual polling range, some potentially effective tactics could include attacking Biden on electability or racial issues, where he might be vulnerable, or coopting the messages of other liberal or outside-the-establishment candidates.

According to an Emerson College poll conducted earlier this week, almost 60 percent of Sanders’s 2016 supporters aren’t supporting him this time around. Fifteen percent of Sanders 2016 supporters are currently with Warren, 16 percent with Biden, 10 percent with Buttigieg and 6 percent with Yang, so they seem like the best candidates for Sanders to attack — and Warren is at the head of that list. In my opinion, their friendship continues to hold Sanders back politically, causing them to play nice with each other when Sanders could potentially gain a lot from a weaker Warren. It’s probably no coincidence that Sanders’s recent uptick in the polls has come amid a Warren polling collapse.

I’ll be watching Warren in the debate but, wow, what a difference two months makes. In mid-October, Warren was riding high in the polls. She had successfully positioned herself as practically a co-front-runner for the Democratic nomination, attracting a coalition beyond her base of very liberal, white, college-educated voters (this included more moderate Democrats, voters without a college degree and some nonwhite voters). And although she still trailed Biden in the national polls, she had at least edged closer to him while also grabbing narrow leads in Iowa and New Hampshire.

But now Warren’s national support has dipped nearly 10 percentage points from its peak of around 24 percent in October, and she’s fallen to fourth place in Iowa and New Hampshire, according to our polling averages.

One possible explanation for her slide is her health care plan. Warren has essentially rolled out her own version of Medicare for All, even though it is not as popular as a public option that would allow Americans to keep their private health insurance, which could be costing her with voters. Warren has called for a slow implementation of her plan, stressing that it would allow people to have a “choice” in their health care plans, but it’s unclear how that’s resonating with voters at this point.

Of course, her struggles could also be tied to “electability” concerns among voters, who are concerned about voting for a woman — especially one who is among the most liberal candidates in the Democratic field.

The good news for Warren is that she’s routinely had strong debate performances, so this debate could be a kind of reset for her. And it wouldn’t be all that surprising if Warren tried to pivot away from health care to focus more on her proposed wealth tax, which polls much better than getting rid of private health insurance. For instance, a Fox News survey from earlier this month found only 41 percent of registered voters, including 57 percent of Democrats, favored getting rid of private insurance, while 68 percent overall, including 83 percent of Democrats, backed a 2 percent tax on a person’s wealth over $50 million.

Warren will still probably have to answer tough questions about her health care plan, but talking more about her wealth tax could help deflect some of the scrutiny. One more strong debate performance could be just what Warren needs to move back into second — or maybe even first — place.

Poll Bot! You’re sounding more and more like a real robot these days! Not that you aren’t a real robot or anything … shhhhh