What Went Down At The December Democratic Primary Debate

I’ll be watching Warren in the debate but, wow, what a difference two months makes. In mid-October, Warren was riding high in the polls. She had successfully positioned herself as practically a co-front-runner for the Democratic nomination, attracting a coalition beyond her base of very liberal, white, college-educated voters (this included more moderate Democrats, voters without a college degree and some nonwhite voters). And although she still trailed Biden in the national polls, she had at least edged closer to him while also grabbing narrow leads in Iowa and New Hampshire.

But now Warren’s national support has dipped nearly 10 percentage points from its peak of around 24 percent in October, and she’s fallen to fourth place in Iowa and New Hampshire, according to our polling averages.

One possible explanation for her slide is her health care plan. Warren has essentially rolled out her own version of Medicare for All, even though it is not as popular as a public option that would allow Americans to keep their private health insurance, which could be costing her with voters. Warren has called for a slow implementation of her plan, stressing that it would allow people to have a “choice” in their health care plans, but it’s unclear how that’s resonating with voters at this point.

Of course, her struggles could also be tied to “electability” concerns among voters, who are concerned about voting for a woman — especially one who is among the most liberal candidates in the Democratic field.

The good news for Warren is that she’s routinely had strong debate performances, so this debate could be a kind of reset for her. And it wouldn’t be all that surprising if Warren tried to pivot away from health care to focus more on her proposed wealth tax, which polls much better than getting rid of private health insurance. For instance, a Fox News survey from earlier this month found only 41 percent of registered voters, including 57 percent of Democrats, favored getting rid of private insurance, while 68 percent overall, including 83 percent of Democrats, backed a 2 percent tax on a person’s wealth over $50 million.

Warren will still probably have to answer tough questions about her health care plan, but talking more about her wealth tax could help deflect some of the scrutiny. One more strong debate performance could be just what Warren needs to move back into second — or maybe even first — place.

Poll Bot! You’re sounding more and more like a real robot these days! Not that you aren’t a real robot or anything … shhhhh

Bleep bloop, Poll Bot here. I am rebooted, recharged and ready to provide you humans with interesting polling data during the debate tonight.