After a lull we’re back to the candidates focusing on electability arguments. In the past ten minutes Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Sanders have all argued they are the one who can beat Trump.
Who’s talking about Trump?
How often Trump’s name has been mentioned by candidates participating in the South Carolina Democratic debate, as of 9:41 p.m. Tuesday
Sanders claims he has the highest favorability of any candidate on stage. At least in November 2019, Sanders, Warren and Biden had very slightly negative net favorability ratings nationally among all Americans — they were all between a net rating of 0 and -2. But it does seem today that politicians are more likely to have negative ratings than in the past — maybe because of polarization.
Sanders just said the Democrats “need to have the largest voter turnout in the history of the United States.” But there isn’t a lot of evidence that he’s turning out new voters in the primary so far. In fact, there hasn’t been any sign of a Sanders-fueled voter surge in any of the early states.
I dunno why Biden seems so much more comfortable in his own skin tonight than in previous debates. But maybe just campaigning in a state where a lot of your base is — moderate whites and African-Americans — has you feeling a bit more confident.
👯 Micah, Kaleigh!
Sanders referred to wanting to increase voter turnout. In an article today, political scientists David Broockman and Josh Kalla wrote that while Sanders does as well as more moderate candidates in head-to-head matchups, he does so essentially because of a very large youth turnout surge — one so large it may not be realistic.
I think voters like a bit of passion on stage.
About two-thirds of Americans say it is likely that Russia or other foreign governments will attempt to influence the 2020 election. Among those who think it is likely, two-thirds say those attempts are a major problem, according to a January Pew Research Center poll. Among those who thought foreign influence was likely, 82 percent of Democrats saw it as a major problem, while only 39 percent of Republicans did.
I sorta would bet voters like genuine emotion?
So do you think maybe, Sanders got too angry in that moment? And that might not play well with voters?
While voters sometimes do and don’t like candidates being aggressive — it seemed to help Warren in the last debate — genuine anger may be a different thing, especially if it’s hard to tell if someone is in righteous indignation mode or actually losing their temper.
Klobuchar is really leading the charge on explicit shout-outs to her targets — mentioning both elected representatives and the states themselves.
Sanders did really well among Latinos in Nevada. But there’s a big Cuban community in Florida, which votes in a few weeks — and some Democrats in that state have really not liked the way Sanders has handled his comments on Castro.
Buttigieg makes his case as the change candidate, saying the 2020 election shouldn’t be about Trump wanting the social order of the 1950s or the revolution politics of the 1960s that Sanders supposedly embraces.
That was sort of a multifaceted by answer by Sanders on socialists/authoritarians, and I don’t have any real idea about how it’s going to go over. #analysis. I do think, though, that maybe it’s not the optimal time to pivot into a classic lefty critique of U.S. imperialism.
I understand that a weakness of Sanders — especially if makes it to the general election — is having to defend “socialism” or what it means to be a “democractic socialist.” (Yes, there’s a difference, but let’s skip that for a moment.) I thought his retort to the questioning of his comments on foreign leaders was good though, pointing the finger back at Bloomberg’s own confusing defense of the Chinese government, arguing only moments ago that it was fine because it was “responsive to the politbureau.” “But who elects the bureau?” asks Sanders. Good question and a weird stance for Bloomberg.
Is Biden … winning this debate? Like, not even graded on a curve either!
Sanders was clearly prepared for this question, which we all knew was coming, but not sure if the explanation is landing.
Sanders defends his comments, which included saying that the Castro government did some good things (like literacy programs), by saying that Obama said the same thing. The other candidates — and the audience! — are not having it.
I am surprised that this is the first time that Sanders’s comments on Fidel Castro have come up at this debate.
I am shocked it took 90 minutes for anyone to bring up Sanders’s controversial comments about Castro and Cuba.
As your Mayor Pete correspondent, I wonder if he’s still at the debate?
They’ve been doing the same thing with Canada, Clare, which hasn’t made a decision yet.
Bloomberg has a pretty weak answer to a question premised on the fact that he said Chinese President Xi is not a dictator. Biden follows it up with a much more fiery answer about standing up to China. Point: Biden.
Nate, I was just texting about this with someone, but I think almost by definition “Angry Biden” will play better than “Bumbling Biden”?
Sure, Sarah, although expectations are so low for Bloomberg that we’ll see how voters react to it. It also helps Biden that Steyer hasn’t been very present at all in this debate and could sort of fade from memory as a choice for voters in South Carolina.
This question posed to Bloomberg about allowing the Chinese to build infrastructure is a hot button one. The U.S. was leaning on the UK, for instance, asking them not to allow a Chinese company to build their 5G network but the UK went ahead and allowed it.
And if Bloomberg is having another meh performance that helps, too, right, Nate? Not in South Carolina because he’s not on the ballot there, but looking ahead to Super Tuesday.
One important dynamic is that Biden is ahead in South Carolina, so by merely not screwing up in this debate that reduces volatility and therefore increases the chances he wins it.
I’m sure Warren is eager to get into the discussion of coronavirus. True to form, she released a plan to prevent and treat infectious diseases back in January, in direct response to the coronavirus outbreak.
I’m not sure yet how excited I am to get into “political implications of a coronavirus pandemic,” but you’d think it would help the more experienced candidates, other things held equal.
Sarah hit the nail on the head — Biden talks about his work on Ebola, and attacks Trump for cutting funding to health institutions.
You know it’s serious if a candidate lists a website other than their own.
Biden should be able to answer this question pretty effectively, considering he was in office during the Ebola crisis in 2014.
Klobuchar was just asked about the coronavirus. According to a February Morning Consult poll, 80 percent of Americans support the United States “banning travel to and from countries affected by the coronavirus,” while 10 percent oppose. Seventy-three percent support “putting quotas on how many travelers can enter the U.S. from affected countries,” and 78 percent support “President Trump declaring the coronavirus a public health emergency in the United States.”
That’s right, Geoffrey — in fact, the very first election of Bloomberg’s career was originally scheduled on Sept. 11, 2001 (it was postponed).
WASH YOUR HANDS
OK, finally a coronavirus question!
Yeah, Nate, but if I hadn’t seen last week’s Bloomberg bomb, I would think his performance tonight was perfectly meh.
That’s two mentions of 9/11 by Bloomberg. He won the mayoralty in 2001 right after it, but he wasn’t mayor when it happened.
Bloomberg’s been better tonight, but you really see the gap between someone who’s just getting back into campaigning and a bunch of other candidate who have been doing this for a year straight now.
In a January Gallup poll, just over half of Americans said that the U.S. is as safe and strong as it was three years ago with regard to national security, while 43 percent said the nation was not as safe and strong. When the question was asked in 2012, 49 percent said the nation was as safe and strong as it was three years prior, while 47 percent said it was not.
South Carolina is a big military state. It has one of the highest numbers of both vets and active duty military members.
The Bloomberg campaign email-blast count is up to 11 since the debate started. Just so you know. 😉
I think Klobuchar is having a pretty good night so far. She had a strong answer for how to deal with the housing crisis, medical coverage in rural areas and marijuana legalization. She’s been pretty sharp. I’m not sure it matters for South Carolina, but she just wants to avoid a total wipeout there.
ASK ABOUT CORONAVIRUS, CBS
Yeah, Perry, I’d be interested to see if there are studies matching New York to other comparable cities to examine the effects of Bloomberg’s policies. Hard to identify an effect from just looking at one city.
I’m honestly not sure how much of an impact Steyer is making tonight. He had that sharp exchange with Biden at the beginning, but since then it’s felt like he’s kind of faded into the background.
I don’t think the “winners” and “losers” of tonight’s debate have been as obvious as they were last week. But I think, in general, Biden and Warren are doing the best. I’m watching Warren specifically, and she came across as knowledgeable and prepared on the policy topics.