What Went Down At The South Carolina Democratic Debate

As spirited as last week’s debate was this one was a bit more muddled. The candidates sparred and shouted, but FiveThirtyEight’s live bloggers were left a bit confused as to who had a good night and who had a bad night.

We were pretty confident Biden did well all things considered, though. And considering South Carolina votes first on Saturday, that isn’t a bad thing. He currently leads there in our forecast, and if he does win there decisively, that could be just the kickstart his campaign needs going into Super Tuesday.

But while it’s clear the candidates were in full Sanders attack mode, it’s a little less clear how those individual punches landed. Did it do enough to sway the voters watching at home who were considering Sanders to lean toward someone else? Remember, the main objective tonight was to at least stop Sanders from continuing to rise further in the polls — candidates didn’t actually need to hurt his overall standing to keep Super Tuesday and the contests beyond interesting.

That’s it for now — be sure to check back tomorrow for our post-debate poll with Ipsos that measures how the debate changed voters’ views of the race to see what things look like headed into South Carolina, and in the meantime, as you relieve the live blog in all its chronological glory, here’s the team’s take on tonight’s events in a newspaper-ish headline:

Perry: Everybody Hates Bernie

Laura: Drawing Lessons From New Hampshire And Nevada, Candidates Decide Attack Is The Best Strategy

Geoff: Sanders Gets The Front-Runner Treatment And Biden Has Maybe His Best Debate Yet

Amelia: Democrats Scuffle And Attack Sanders In Possibly the Loudest Debate of the Primary So Far

Galen: In Disjointed Debate, Biden Fights For His Political Life

Micah: This Was Probably Biden’s Best Debate, But No One Stood Out That Much

Nate: Biden Pulls Out His Best Debate With His Back To The Wall / But is that damning him with faint praise?

Meena: This Was The Last Debate Before South Carolina And Super Tuesday. It Was Fine.

Kaleigh: A Policy Heavy Debate With Fewer Jabs And More Tabs

Nathaniel: Tons Of People Are Voting In A Week, And They Have To Make Up Their Minds Based On That

Watch our post-debate podcast here:

Politics Podcast: Biden Fights For A Win In The South Carolina Debate

Sanders fellow debaters actually named him more often than they did Trump!

Steyer has said he has to at least come in third in South Carolina. It’s totally possible that could happen, based on the polls right now. I’m not sure how much this debate will help him, though. Being attacked by Biden certainly made him look like more of a contender than he’s seemed in the past. But none of the other candidates really seemed interested in sparring with him. And looking past South Carolina to Super Tuesday, it’s hard to see the road ahead for Steyer. Wondering how many more debates we’re going to see him in.

My final takeaways:

1.) Sanders was bashed by all of the other candidates (even Warren a bit.) He was attacked on health care and foreign policy in particular. I didn’t think he was particularly great in responding, but I am not sure how he could have been — there was a lot of focus on past statements he made that he can’t take back.

2.) The other candidates I think all smartly trained in on Sanders and generally left Bloomberg alone this time. Smart if they want to keep this race going past next week.

3.) Bloomberg was decent, but he was also just not being attacked as much.

Everyone started out quite aggressive tonight, but my impression is that they sort of ran out of steam about halfway through. Bloomberg is definitely most improved, though he’d set himself a pretty low bar for that last time. I agree that Biden was pretty good; he had a few weird moments (cutting himself off — again — and the hair joke), but that hasn’t seemed to hurt him in past debates. Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Sanders seemed consistent, though Sanders took more incoming heat than in previous rounds. Steyer didn’t do a great job of inserting himself, speaking a lot less than any of the other candidates.

As I said before, Klobuchar had a good night. She looked competent and knowledgeable about a host of issues. She also made some appeals to the African American community, which were very important given her almost nonexistent support among that voting bloc. Still, I remain skeptical that she’s going to get some sort of major bounce in South Carolina. She’s at 4 percent in our polling average there and I don’t think Biden is about to slide in South Carolina and perhaps open up some support for Klobuchar to gain among more moderate voters. Moreover, if Biden were to lose support among black voters, they might go to Steyer, who has made large investments there in money and organization, or Sanders, who is the front-runner in the race and has roughly the same support as Steyer among black voters. Klobuchar just isn’t in a position to really take advantage of a strong debate performance in South Carolina in the same way she was in New Hampshire.

Sanders came into this debate the front-runner overall, but slightly behind Biden in South Carolina. He was clearly prepared for the attacks that came his way but, as Nate pointed out, also got fired up — bordering on angry — in response to a few jabs. I think the reaction to tonight’s performance will inform his strategy next, either keeping the passion or trying to craft more rehearsed answers. At this point in the cycle, and when you’re in the lead, your campaign has to be nimble.

So, wrapwise: I feel reasonably confident that Biden had at least a pretty good debate, and I think that comes at a fairly clutch moment for him given that South Carolina votes on Saturday. I’m less confident about most other things, including how voters will react to Sanders and to a lesser extent Bloomberg. As for the candidate I was focused on, Buttigieg, I thought he was mostly pretty good, but as I said at the outset, it was going to be hard for him to grab attention given how many other candidates had more on the line tonight, and I doubt he’ll get much coverage, positive or negative, in the post-debate narrative, either.

I think Biden had the best night tonight, which is great timing for him — we’ll have to wait until we get some polls, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him consolidate support in South Carolina, and if he wins there that’s obviously good for his momentum heading into Super Tuesday. Warren was also good and might get a lot of her clips replayed as she went after Bloomberg again; it’s less clear where she will benefit, though, since the next states where she could win are a week away (she is not a top contender in South Carolina). I think Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Steyer faded into the background tonight. I am not sure Sanders or Bloomberg did badly per se, but they didn’t help themselves. Sanders didn’t need to, though.

OK, folks — that’s the end of this debate, so you know what that means — final takeaways. How does this debate factor into South Carolina? Super Tuesday? Where do you see the candidate you’re following headed next?

So naturally, I said, all the time. You? (If only I was that calm, cool and collected).

I think FiveThirtyEight asked me if I’d experienced failure, Micah.

Micah, I could certainly find a prepared answer to that question somewhere in my notes.

Has anyone here ever given one of those horrible job interview answers where you play off a strength as a weakness in a real job interview?

I’m pretty sure Buttigieg is “passionate” …. about getting a higher office. DNC chair, president, secretary of state.

Buttigieg has gotten more coverage about it, but Warren actually talks about her faith a lot on the campaign trail. The candidates have brought up religion a lot in this primary!

“Some say I’m unflappable,” Buttigieg says in his closing. That’s very “I would have to say my biggest weakness is my perfectionism” of him.

I think it’s potentially different, Kaleigh. He’s always got some righteous indignation going on, and I think that works pretty well for him. But he arguably lapsed into genuine anger at a couple of times tonight — toward the other candidates and toward the audience — and that’s a riskier proposition, especially when the expectations are different because you’re a frontrunner. His closing answer was good, though.

But I mean, do you think his performance tonight was much different from other debates?

Sure, I think they might. I don’t know, though. I can see a very wide range of possible reactions to Sanders ranging from fairly positive to quite negative. That’s why we wait for the polls!

Nate, do you think voters might react poorly to Sanders?

Sanders was blah through most of the debate, but that was a pretty good answer. Excellent even.

Interesting. Biden commits to appointing a black woman to the Supreme Court.

If asked to name a motto I think I’d freeze and say, “You miss 100 percent of the shots you don’t take — Wayne Gretzky.”

Overall, Klobuchar had a good debate. She gave a number of lengthy, detail-filled answers on issues ranging from health care to the coronavirus to how to best approach North Korea in that last segment. She made some early attempts to broaden her appeal by trying to make the case for her candidacy to black voters, perhaps pandering by quoting MLK in her opening answer but also highlighting the need to protect voting rights and live up to the promises that the Democratic Party makes to black voters. Thing is, I’m not sure there’s any way she’s going to truly break through in South Carolina even with this debate. She’s at like 5 percent in our polling average there.

I was thinking back to Steyer’s first few debate performances, and you’ve got to give the guy credit — he’s gotten much more comfortable and fluid in the debate format over time. And his investment in South Carolina has gotten him to the point where one of the higher-polling candidates (Biden) actually took the time to attack him. But I don’t think he stood out tonight — at least, not after his pointed back-and-forth with Biden at the beginning. He did get a big applause line later in the debate when he talked about his pro-impeachment group. But overall, I don’t think this performance is going to change many voters’ minds about Steyer, one way or another.

I imagine that some of the candidates will take this last segment as an opportunity to talk about their faith, as it has basically been left out of the conversation, which is taking place in one of the most religious states in the nation. The candidates know that churches are a big part of political organizing in South Carolina and across the South.

I think the candidate I’m following, Buttigieg, has been fine but isn’t getting a lot of attention. But if voters react poorly to the performance from Sanders, that keeps the whole nomination process more open and is good news for him.

Sarah, I think Warren has done well tonight but hasn’t quite reached the heights of last week’s debate. She gave several good answers on policy and went after Bloomberg again on sexual harassment. Her contrast with Sanders at the very beginning, about how they largely agree but she would be a more effective govern-er, had less sizzle, though, so I don’t think it will get as much play. And to the extent there’s only room for one narrative to emerge from a debate, I don’t think it will be her. (I think Biden will be the “winner.“)

Sanders has held his own throughout the debate, and responded to attacks from all sides. I don’t think he had a standout performance, but I don’t know that he needed one. Avoiding any major fumbles while standing up to criticism is a good spot to be in as frontrunner.

Looking at candidates’ most distinctive words spoken, we’re getting a sense of different geographic focuses — Bloomberg’s top words are “new,” “york” and “city,” and he’s mentioned the city 15 times, while Klobuchar is focusing on rural areas and Steyer on global risks. Also standing out: Biden’s colloquialisms.

OK, folks — we’re close to the final moments of the debate. How would you rate your candidate’s performance at this point? Did it move the needle for them at all? And in which direction? Did it help them? Hurt them?

Perry, Denmark, South Carolina is one of three Denmarks in the United States. The other two are in Wisconsin and Maine.

FYI, There is a Sweden, South Carolina, a Norway, South Carolina, a Denmark, South Carolina and a Finland, South Carolina.

Denmark, South Carolina is a town of 3,500.

Biden is making the “Whoops i ran out of time” bit work for him, I think, because, as we said earlier, not speaking or taking that much incoming fire is a good strategy for him.

Buttigieg uses a question about the humanitarian crisis in Syria to … attack Sanders for wanting to eliminate private health insurance?

Strong answer from Klobuchar where she gets a bunch of hits on Trump for how he’s approached foreign policy while saying she would meet with Kim Jong Un but would embrace multilateralism to put pressure on North Korea. Hitting Trump specifically is always a good bet in a Democratic debate.

Here is Klobuchar’s hot dish recipe, if anyone would like to try it at home.

Well, I guess Klobuchar is pulling an Obama-in-2008-primary line (he said he’d talk to the Iranians, Clinton told him he was naive). Klobuchar is saying that she would talk to the North Koreans, but not how Trump did.

I feel like there should be a New York Times dialect quiz but for Democratic candidates, where if you say “hot dish” and “pell mell” a lot then it knows you’re Amy Klobuchar.

Do people outside of the midwest know what a hot dish is?

Klobuchar gets a “hot dish” mention into her answer on North Korea — reminding Minnesotans, who vote on Super Tuesday, that she’s still one of them.

Sanders got a question about his comments about next week’s AIPAC conference, which he said is a “platform for bigotry.” It’s really striking to hear Bloomberg and Sanders both answer this question. They are basically at opposite ends of the Democratic (and in some ways, American Jewish) spectrum on Israel right now.