What Went Down At The Nevada Democratic Debate

The inclusion of Bloomberg makes tonight’s debate much more interesting for Sanders. Sanders, as the candidate who leads the polls and looks like the favorite, would normally be the focus of tough questions from the moderators and attacks from his opponents. But I assume Bloomberg will get a lot of scrutiny, because of his polling surge, the criticism that he is effectively trying to buy the Democratic nomination and the fact that he hasn’t previously been in any of these debates.

That’s good news for Sanders — he likely won’t be on the hot seat alone. The former New York City mayor’s inclusion is also good for Sanders because Bloomberg is, in many ways, the embodiment of what Sanders is running against: a billionaire who has opposed more liberal economic policies.

But here’s why I would be worried about Bloomberg, if I were Sanders. My sense is that Bloomberg, like some of the other candidates, views Sanders’s agenda as an electoral risk for Democrats. Unlike the other candidates, however, Bloomberg may deeply believe that Sanders’s ideas are wrong on the merits and be willing to suggest Sanders’s policies will hurt the economy. Bloomberg might even bring extra credibility to that issue, as some voters may view him as a savvy businessman given his wealth. There’s also a third reason: Bloomberg may be especially comfortable offending Sanders’s supporters because he assumes few of them will shift from Sanders to him anyway (at least during the primary).

Up to now, Bloomberg has been simply a great foil for Sanders. But on stage, he may also be formidable opponent.

Amelia started a trend — if you’re watching this debate with an animal companion, share it with us on Twitter.

If you’ve ever felt the sensation that you’re falling while you were sleeping and then woke up, you might have some idea about how the Biden campaign feels right now — except they’re wide awake and still tumbling. Coming into tonight’s debate, the stakes are high for Biden: He could use a strong performance to shift the fatalistic tone of the media coverage surrounding his campaign and to convince voters to stick with or move to him in the Nevada caucuses on Saturday.

His campaign is banking on at least a second-place finish there to shore up support heading into his “firewall” state of South Carolina on Feb. 29 — the first contest that will have a majority black primary electorate. But after the poor showings in Iowa and New Hampshire, there’s no guarantee that Nevada — or South Carolina — will save him.

Bloomberg’s debut on the debate stage could work to Biden’s advantage, however, as the former mayor may well be the top target tonight. The debate at least presents Biden with an opportunity to go after Bloomberg’s record, which has some potential landmines. And because Bloomberg’s rise looks to have come at Biden’s expense — including among African American and moderate voters (there’s some overlap there) — Biden might benefit more than anyone else from a poor performance from Bloomberg. Conversely, he could stand to lose a lot if Bloomberg does well.

But Biden going on the attack isn’t a surefire way to win over voters, as Biden’s performance in the New Hampshire debate showed. He adopted a more aggressive approach by hitting Buttigieg for his inexperience and Sanders for being too left-wing, but our polling with Ipsos suggested it wasn’t received favorably: Respondents gave his performance a middling rating, and Biden’s net favorability (favorable percentage minus unfavorable percentage) fell from +40 before the debate to +34 afterward. Sanders was also viewed as more likely to beat Trump than Biden after the debate. This all suggests that Biden may not only need to attack his opponents but also present an upbeat message for what he plans to do as president.

Biden faces a tough balancing act tonight, but he needs something to get his campaign moving in a positive direction, and the Nevada debate could be a big chance to do just that.