What Went Down At The Nevada Democratic Debate

If you’ve ever felt the sensation that you’re falling while you were sleeping and then woke up, you might have some idea about how the Biden campaign feels right now — except they’re wide awake and still tumbling. Coming into tonight’s debate, the stakes are high for Biden: He could use a strong performance to shift the fatalistic tone of the media coverage surrounding his campaign and to convince voters to stick with or move to him in the Nevada caucuses on Saturday.

His campaign is banking on at least a second-place finish there to shore up support heading into his “firewall” state of South Carolina on Feb. 29 — the first contest that will have a majority black primary electorate. But after the poor showings in Iowa and New Hampshire, there’s no guarantee that Nevada — or South Carolina — will save him.

Bloomberg’s debut on the debate stage could work to Biden’s advantage, however, as the former mayor may well be the top target tonight. The debate at least presents Biden with an opportunity to go after Bloomberg’s record, which has some potential landmines. And because Bloomberg’s rise looks to have come at Biden’s expense — including among African American and moderate voters (there’s some overlap there) — Biden might benefit more than anyone else from a poor performance from Bloomberg. Conversely, he could stand to lose a lot if Bloomberg does well.

But Biden going on the attack isn’t a surefire way to win over voters, as Biden’s performance in the New Hampshire debate showed. He adopted a more aggressive approach by hitting Buttigieg for his inexperience and Sanders for being too left-wing, but our polling with Ipsos suggested it wasn’t received favorably: Respondents gave his performance a middling rating, and Biden’s net favorability (favorable percentage minus unfavorable percentage) fell from +40 before the debate to +34 afterward. Sanders was also viewed as more likely to beat Trump than Biden after the debate. This all suggests that Biden may not only need to attack his opponents but also present an upbeat message for what he plans to do as president.

Biden faces a tough balancing act tonight, but he needs something to get his campaign moving in a positive direction, and the Nevada debate could be a big chance to do just that.

Poll Bot, is it possible that you’re not a robot? And that you’re just a pseudonym for FiveThirtyEight database journalist Dhrumil Mehta and politics intern Likhitha Butchireddygari? 🤔

Bleep bloop and welcome to the 2529837295th … uh … i mean … ninth Democratic presidential primary debate. Once again, I will be providing you with polling data so that you know what Americans think about the issues being discussed on stage.

I didn’t think robots could get tired, but after so many debates, I’m really feeling it.