FiveThirtyEight
Kaleigh Rogers

Steyer’s Not Debating, But He’s Still Making A Play For Your Eyeballs

One candidate you won’t see on the stage tonight is Tom Steyer, even though, unlike Bloomberg, he is actually contesting Nevada.

He is actively campaigning in the state — and he isn’t polling too terribly there either (he’s in fifth behind Buttigieg) — but he still failed to meet any of the requirements to qualify for the debate stage. However, the lack of recent qualifying polls may have been a particular issue for him (and his campaign has certainly tried to make that case).

In fact, this will be the first debate Steyer has missed since September. His last performance in New Hampshire was a bit odd, though — he was one of the two candidates I was watching — with the billionaire spending much of his time trying to guide the conversation and agree with the other candidates rather than pitch himself and his platform.

That said, Steyer certainly hasn’t thrown in the towel just yet. In the past week alone, Steyer is second only to Bloomberg in Facebook ad spending nationally — though it’s worth noting it’s a distant second, with Steyer spending close to $700,000 compared to Bloomberg’s $8 million. Similarly, he’s also continuing to take up a healthy chunk of airtime with TV ad buys, according to FiveThirtyEight’s ad tracker.

Micah Cohen

A quick interjection as everyone else outlines what they’re looking for from their assigned candidate tonight: Harry Reid is throwing shade at Iowa and New Hampshire.

He’s not wrong — Nevada is the most representative early state.

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

Who I’m Watching: Amy Klobuchar

The last time Klobuchar was on a primary debate stage, she managed to dramatically reverse her fortunes in New Hampshire. Her strong New Hampshire debate performance helped catapult her into a surprise third-place finish in the primary, and she raised more than $12 million in the days after the debate, according to her campaign. So tonight the pressure’s on — can she keep the momentum going with just days to go before the Nevada caucuses? And will she stand out in a debate that seems almost certain to be overshadowed by the presence of Bloomberg?

One big question for Klobuchar is whether she can appeal to a diverse coalition of voters in states like Nevada and South Carolina, after relying on a largely white, college-educated base in New Hampshire. Recent national polls have essentially found no support among voters of color for her. Last weekend, when asked about how she’ll draw in black, Asian and Latino voters, Klobuchar didn’t have a great answer other than more people “need to get to know her.” But recent questions about her record as a prosecutor in Minnesota and her record on immigration might not make it easier for her to appeal to nonwhite voters. Additionally, she was one of two candidates (along with Steyer, who didn’t make tonight’s debate) who couldn’t remember the name of Mexico’s president in a Telemundo interview in Nevada last week — not a great look in a state with a large Latino population.

We’ll see if she tries to address these issues head-on, and how she responds if she gets questions about them. I’ll also be watching to see if Klobuchar is able to land some punches against Bloomberg. Last week, she said that she can “beat him on a debate stage.” She’ll finally get her chance to try tonight.


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