What Went Down At The Univision Democratic Debate

Clinton was dismissive of the notion that she might be indicted for use of a private email server while secretary of state. Washington Post columnist Ruth Marcus, a longstanding critic of Clinton’s email practices, wrote yesterday that Clinton is very unlikely to be indicted. “There are plenty of unattractive facts but not a lot of clear evidence of criminality, and we tend to forget the distinction,” American University law professor Stephen Vladeck, an expert on prosecutions involving classified information (and, disclosure, my cousin), told Marcus. “This is really just a political firestorm, not a criminal case.”

I think Sanders needs to spend money. He spent a lot of money on advertising in Michigan. My guess is that made a big difference. Sanders needs to cut down on his name recognition deficit in Florida, Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina. Remember, winning states doesn’t matter. Delegate math is what matters. To win more delegates, you need to win by wider margins because on the Democratic side all delegates are awarded proportionally.

How does Bernie capitalize on the Michigan momentum? Would he change his performance and debating style? — commenter Neil Prateek Viswanathan

Sanders is right that he has come a long way from early 2015, when he polled below 5 percent in many national surveys. But his progress has slowed since last fall; he pulled within about 20 points in national polling averages five months ago, and still trails by about 15 points now. Moreover, now that Clinton has stretched her delegate lead, Sanders will have to consistently beat Clinton, not just close the gap, in subsequent contests.

I want to jump off of Carl’s point. I hate questions that ask candidates about how they’re doing in the campaign. We should be talking issues during a debate, not about delegates.

Clinton, asked where she failed last night, pointedly responded that she got more votes and more delegates. She’s right: Sanders won narrowly in Michigan, while Clinton routed him in Mississippi. She’s well ahead of the targets she needs to hit in her path to the nomination, while he’s behind — so every night like last night makes it harder for Sanders to catch up.

Michigan, the home of America’s auto industry, has historically had a high share of manufacturing jobs. But like most parts of the Rust Belt, those jobs have steadily declined over the last few decades. However, it’s not clear if Sanders’s attacks on trade deals (like NAFTA, signed under President Bill Clinton) were the driving force behind his win there. Some preliminary analysis FiveThirtyEight has done showed no relationship, in states that have already voted, between counties that have voted that went for Sanders and the change in manufacturing jobs over the last 20 years. But with more states in the industrial Midwest soon to vote, we’ll have more data to examine if trade is Sanders’ wedge issue to press Clinton about.

Andrew, another Michigan-centered question: Sanders’s attacks on Clinton on trade are getting a lot of credit for his win there. So how does Michigan’s manufacturing economy and its relationship with trade compare to the country’s? Is this a line of attack that could help Sanders in other states?

https://twitter.com/micahcohen/status/707751004280909824

During the opening of this debate, it was striking to hear the moderators speak in Spanish with English dubbing for the CNN audience. (CNN is simulcasting the debate, which is sponsored by Univision, the Washington Post, and Facebook.) It’s not something you’d see at a Republican debate.

The night after Sanders’s stunning Michigan upset, we’re still trying to figure out how he won despite trailing in the polls by an average of 21 percentage points. I talked to some pollsters and checked the numbers to uncover a few possible explanations for the big polling miss. One has a bearing on tonight: None of the polls came after Sanders’s unusually aggressive debate last Sunday, which might have netted him some late deciders. For more on the historic polling miss, listen to my colleagues on a special episode of our elections podcast today.

Micah, black Americans have a variety of regional narratives that have shaped and will continue to shape the voting in the Democratic race. In the South, due to massive voter suppression before the civil rights era, there developed strong community mechanisms (often tied to institutions including churches) to mobilize voters once the civil rights acts were passed. Northern black voters had different voting patterns — more ability to vote earlier, historically; and different mechanisms of mobilization. But I also think the poisoned water and governance debacle in Flint has provided a backdrop for Sanders that resonates with Northern and Midwestern voters. I also wonder — but do not know — whether less Southern-style faith-community political mobilization means that television advertising will have more of an impact on black voters in the North and East.

So as we wait for this debate to start, here’s a question coming out of Sanders’s win in Michigan yesterday: Sanders lost black voters in the Wolverine State, but not as badly as he lost black voters in other states, particularly in the South. So, are there reasons to think black voters in the North and/or Midwest might be less pro-Clinton?

Sanders’s surprise win in Michigan on Tuesday threw a wrench into what had been a fairly stable race. Here’s what it looked like:

Clinton has a clear lead in endorsements from Democratic governors and members of Congress:

Here’s how popular Sanders and Clinton are with Democratic voters heading into tonight’s debate:

The race between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders had been pretty stable, with Sanders winning a state here and there while Clinton built a solid lead in pledged delegates. And going into the Michigan primary yesterday, the polls suggested none of that was going to change; Clinton led our weighted polling average in Michigan by over 20 percentage points. Of course, the polls were wrong. Sanders won, throwing a wrench into the Democratic presidential primary in the process. So here are the questions heading into tonight’s debate, hosted by Univision and The Washington Post in Miami: Was Michigan a fluke? Or, will Sanders outperform his polls in the Midwest, including in Ohio and Illinois on March 15? And how will Clinton react to the reinvigorated Sanders campaign? Watch it all unfold with us tonight.

Tweet us a question or comment

Leave a comment, and send us questions @FiveThirtyEight.