That's A Wrap!
As has been said many times on this live blog — this was the last debate before the voting starts in Iowa. But we at FiveThirtyEight aren’t entirely sure what to make of tonight’s debate. As you can see from the headlines we’ve come up with as a group, we’re not sure it moved the needle all that much heading into the caucuses. Although editor-in-chief Nate Silver did give us his thoughts below on three ways to think of tonight’s performance: 1) It wasn’t a game-changer. 2) Maybe Warren won? 3) Maybe Biden won?
So scroll down to check that out and to relive this blog in all its chronological glory. We’ll be back tomorrow with our post-debate poll with Ipsos that measures how the debate changed voters’ views of the race.
Here are the live blog team’s takes on tonight’s events in newspaper-y headline format:
Clare: A Largely Dull Debate To Kick Off 2020
Geoffrey: Few Debates Have Really Moved The Polls And It’s Hard To Know If This One Did Either
Nathaniel: Candidates Give More Of The Same In 7th Debate — But How Will Those Just Tuning In Now React?
Amelia: Candidates Tangle Briefly Over Sexism In An Otherwise Snoozy Debate
Perry: Warren Defends Her Electability And That Of Female Candidates — Signaling Real Tension With Sanders
Meena: It’s Going To Be A Long Year
- Way No. 1: It wasn’t a game-changer. The first 30-45 minutes covered topics voters aren’t likely to be highly concerned about. Everyone was reasonably sharp. Not a lot of conflict. The whole thing was a bit overshadowed by impeachment developments.
- Way No. 2: Warren won. She got to talk a lot about policy subjects that are strengths of hers; she probably got the better of Sanders on the exchange over “can a woman win?” — although it was a strange exchange — and she was pretty sharp on electability. And she didn’t really take a lot of incoming fire on some of her potential weaknesses, like Medicare for All. Plus, she has tended to come out as the winner of these debates in our previous polls with Ipsos, so Democrats generally like her style in these things.
- Way No. 3: Biden “won,” because he’s the front-runner, he never took on any water despite frankly seeming a bit tired/sleepy at times, and he had some moments where he was more relatable than usual when talking about his family and so forth.
But would I be shocked if our polling with Ipsos showed that Sanders or Buttigieg or even Klobuchar had the best night instead? No, not really. So these aren’t terribly strong priors. I’m sure you can find hotter takes elsewhere.
Klobuchar needs to do very well in Iowa to have any chance of winning the Democratic nomination. She’s in fifth place in Iowa coming into tonight’s debate, but she didn’t seem quite as sharp as in some recent debates. This is not to say she did poorly — I thought she had some solid answers on health care, impeachment and her experience and ability to do the job. But Klobuchar needs to do better than “solid” if she’s going to break through and push into the top tier group of candidates in Iowa. So in that sense, she fell a bit short of her goal.
Some interesting words from the debate. Notable: Steyer’s focus on climate, Sanders’s focus on health care (this counts both “healthcare” and “health care”), and Klobuchar’s emphasis on her legislative record. Also: the women say “think” more.
The downside to having had this many Democratic primary debates already is that it all kind of feels predictable and unsurprising at this point. But realistically, this is the point where most voters actually start to tune in, right? But it seems like people might be coming in right at the point where candidates are getting threadbare on their performances.
As your Buttigieg beat reporter, I don’t think he stood out too much tonight. That said, he did what he set out to do: He emphasized the boldness of his plans in order to reassure people who need some level of baseline progressivism in their candidate. But he also made plenty of Iowa-specific allusions and wrapped himself in religious and patriotic rhetoric that are usually associated with Republicans, hinting at an electability argument. Basically, it’s the argument he’s been making at every stop here in Iowa. He’s betting that it’s resonating. Will it? I want to wait for the post-debate polls, especially polls of Iowa.
Tonight I was on Steyer detail, and I have to say, I don’t think he did all that much to prove to voters he deserved his spot on the debate stage over the many other candidates (and drop-outs) who didn’t make it. His defense of a wealth tax and candid response to the question about whether the kids of a billionaire deserve free college (“No!”) might be memorable, but overall he looked a little lost tonight. He’s had a good run in a few polls recently, but I don’t know if this debate is going to help extend it.
As your Sanders correspondent, I thought he did decently well. He muddled his way through the “can a woman be president?” question as best as could be expected and was strong on foreign policy and contrasting himself with Biden as an anti-interventionist figure. I think he’ll likely hold steady in the polls, despite the usual attacks from the moderates on his more left-leaning proposals.
It’s now time for closing statements, so to wrap up, we’re going to first check in with our candidate correspondents to see what they thought of the candidates they were watching this evening. It’s hard to believe, but this is it — the last debate before the voting begins in Iowa.
The placard-holders who follow every candidate around have entered the spin room (where candidates and their surrogates spin their performance after the debate). So it looks like the debate should be wrapping up shortly.
That last answer was closer to vintage Biden. He’s the fighter, ready to sock it to ’em to help the working people of the country. It was a sharper answer than most of his previous ones in this debate.
As someone who grew up working class, I would love to compare notes with my compatriots about which of these people claiming they know the Midwest working class actually come across as credible on that claim.
If I was just tuning in, and had never heard of any of these people, Buttigieg would probably be standing out to me tonight. He’s had solid, well-rehearsed but not-canned-sounding answers.
Nice laugh line for Biden toward the end here. This has been his second straight solid debate. (And yes, we are grading on a curve … but as the front-runner, he doesn’t need to win debates — just not screw them up!)
Warren is making an explicit “I’m the unity candidate” case, which her campaign has been floating to the press over the past several days.
Let’s play a game. This is the first debate you’ve watched of 2020, and you’re just now tuning in — who stands out to you?
The idea that “God does not belong to a political party” is something that Buttigieg has been emphasizing throughout his candidacy. But it’s also true that while there are plenty of religious voters within the Democratic Party coalition, it’s an increasingly secular party.
That was probably Buttigieg’s strongest answer of the night — and it was another answer that shaded in his red-state cred, talking about his religion and military service.
Great answer from Buttigieg, reciting his resume as a way to contrast with Trump.
Steyer is finding out what it means to be taken seriously as a candidate tonight. First he got a tough question about his previous investments in fossil fuels, then a question about how he can prove to voters that he’s more than his money.
When asked what the most important issues were in determining their vote for president, 53 percent of voters said the economy in a December Suffolk University poll. This was the most important topic for all registered voters, but among Democrats, health care tops the list, with 59 percent listing it as the most important issue.
That’s right, Nate. Buttigieg just got endorsements from Anthony Brown of Maryland, who’s a member of the Congressional Black Caucus and now Buttigieg’s national campaign co-chair, and also Dave Loebsack, the longest-tenured Democratic member of Congress from Iowa.
Our FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll shows that Biden has far and away the most potential support among black voters. And Buttigieg’s support is higher among white voters, as is Klobuchar’s.
Biden does best among black voters
Share of respondents in an Ipsos/FiveThirtyEight poll who said they were considering each candidate, by race
Buttigieg has gotten a couple of fairly notable endorsements from black elected officials. And they haven’t gotten a ton of media attention, maybe because they don’t really fit the narrative about Buttigieg.
Buttigieg got The Question about black voters (why they aren’t supporting him), and he was ready with a well-rehearsed answer — rattling off a list of his black endorsers and his accomplishments on racial issues.
I agree that climate change is a serious issue, but claiming the U.S. is the only country that has taken great adversity and turned it into opportunity is a weird flex.
Biden brings up a climate change bill he sponsored in 1987. That does not seem like a particularly advantageous thing to mention.
The New York Times has tracked 95 environmental regulations that the Trump administration has rolled back. My personal cynicism says that we’re setting up decades of back-and-forth where one administration instates rules and the next rolls them back … back and forth forever. I want to hear about plans to address environmental protections without executive orders.
Sanders’s supporters are young, Biden’s are older
Share of respondents in an Ipsos/FiveThirtyEight poll who said they were considering supporting each candidate, by age group
Who voters think is best on climate change
Among the 365 respondents who said climate change was the most important issue to them in an Ipsos/FiveThirtyEight poll
What’s interesting is that Steyer’s ads in the early states seem to be mostly about … the economy.
I agree with that, Perry. And it’s not like we didn’t have a candidate in the race who ran on the climate as his number one issue (cough, Jay Inslee) it just wasn’t an issue that Democratic voters were willing to put above everything else.
Steyer is making climate change his No. 1 priority, but voters generally aren’t.
Steyer is making the case that climate policy will be his No 1. priority. I sort of do want to know if the other candidates disagree with that. I assume they would all say that they will work on three or four issues at once.
Excuse me, Nate, he’s basically in a three-way tie for third.
Sort of amazing that Biden, still the national front-runner, is fifth in speaking time … and he’s probably perfectly fine with it.
Weird, process-based question there by Wolf Blitzer — asking Warren how big of a problem the impeachment trial will be for her campaign in Iowa (the trial is expected to overlap with the weeks immediately preceding the caucus). Voters don’t care about this — this isn’t a CNN panel show!
Steyer is right to say he started backing impeachment early and the party followed him there.
The impeachment question may have given Klobuchar her moment of the night — the process is a “decency check” for the country, she says.
As of right now, according to FiveThirtyEight’s impeachment tracker, 46.6 percent of Americans think Trump should be removed from office, including 83.3 percent of Democrats and 8.1 percent of Republicans.
Checking in on candidates’ most common words, Sanders has said “health care” 19 times, while Warren has said “need” 26 times.
“I can’t hold a grudge,” Biden says, in discussing the impeachment process and moving on from it. I thought that was a great answer overall.
Klobuchar has had a few stumbles and hasn’t been as sharp as in some previous debates, particularly the December one. She did have a solid answer on health care, pointing out that the Affordable Care Act is polling better than the president. Klobuchar didn’t seem as effective as Buttigieg in going after the progressives on health care matters, although she did have a strong answer where she noted that she’d found 137 things that a president can do in the first 100 days to improve health care.
I completely agree, Maggie. I thought Steyer was sharper in December — but it seems like the smaller the debate stage, the more he struggles to stand up against the other candidates on substance. He just keeps coming back to his talking points but not in ways that are especially memorable or compelling.
On a personal note, I really really really prefer watching a debate this size than those early ones that felt like I’d just walked in on somebody else’s extremely large Thanksgiving.
Steyer is really feeling like the odd man out here. Which he is in a lot of ways. But it’s just so glaringly obvious now that the field is smaller and there are fewer distractions.
Buttigieg’s outlook is unchanged: He’s doing fine in his lane but not really busting out of it.
That last 30 minutes or so was very, very dull–the same fights over Medicare for All and free college that we have had for months. I’m struggling to remember anything Biden said in the last 30 minutes. But I think that’s good for him — he is leading and is not making any major gaffes.